Foreshadowing the 2020 Charlotte Knights Bullpen

There are a number of intriguing storylines when (dare I say) baseball returns to Charlotte this season, with the Knights’ bullpen at the top of the list for me. A handful of high-octane arms will be seeking to demonstrate the consistency — and health —needed to write their tickets to Chicago, led by Matt Foster, Codi Heuer, Zack Burdi, Ian Hamilton and Caleb Frare.

Like everyone, of course, I’ll be dreaming on the tantalizing ceilings of Michael Kopech, Nick Madrigal, Gavin Sheets and Andrew Vaughn. But it is the bullpen where I find so many compelling possibilities. No doubt one or more of these arms will rise above the others. There’s no shortage of high-upside guys to bet on, including several who’ve already teased with big-league ability.

At the top of the list, perhaps, is Matt Foster, highly regarded enough by Sox brass to have been placed on the 40-man roster prior to the 2019 Rule 5 Draft. A 20th-round pick by the White Sox in 2016, Foster, 25, was Charlotte’s most effective reliever last year, with 62 strikeouts in 55 innings, along with four saves (in eight chances), six holds and a .226 batting average against. He impressed in Spring Training this year as well.

According to Baseball Savant, the clearinghouse for all the Statcast data that MLB collects at its ballparks, Foster has a four-seam fastball that sits at 90-93, peaks at 95 and has enough movement to keep it off barrels. His changeup is his best pitch, particularly against left-handed hitters. A slider in the low 80s is the third pitch in his arsenal. The right hander consistently throws strikes and has the ceiling of 7th inning specialist.

In an interview earlier this month with Mike Rankin, Foster attributed much of his success last year in Charlotte to work he did with Knights’ pitching coach at the time, Steve McCatty, “I got in there after the first few weeks of success and started to get beat down and my pitching coach pulled me aside and started showing me all these analytics,” Foster told FutureSox. “I never really paid attention to them and he broke those down for me. It was very eye-opening. It made me learn how to pitch. You can’t just go out there and throw the same stuff over and over like I’ve been doing.”

Meanwhile, two other relief pitchers on the 40-man roster, Zack Burdi and Ian Hamilton, are hoping to bounce back from injury-marred 2019 campaigns.

Burdi is the former first-round pick of the White Sox in 2016 who jumped four minor league levels in his first summer of pro ball and looked on a fast-track to the closer’s role in Chicago. However, Tommy John surgery in late 2017 and a torn knee ligament early last season limited Burdi to just 29 innings in 2018-19. If his 2020 Spring Training performance is any indication, the hard-throwing righty is all the way back to the stellar form he flashed early in his career.

Here’s what Baseball Savant has to say about Burdi: “Before his elbow gave out, Burdi blew hitters away with a fastball that ranged from 95-100, with arm-side life, and a low-90s slider with quality depth. Burdi has a third weapon in a changeup that tumbles and runs as it approaches the plate, grading as a plus pitch at its best. If his stuff comes all the way back, he’ll just need to refine his control and command…He’ll sometimes have trouble keeping his mechanics in sync and will lose direction toward the plate.”

Fireballer Ian Hamilton, 24, also hopes to put an injury-riddled 2019 behind him and regain the form from one year earlier that had him rapidly on his way to Chicago. Hamilton split 2018 in Birmingham and Charlotte, totaling 62 strikeouts in 51.2 innings, with a 1.05 WHIP and .204 batting average against.

But a car accident — and a subsequent shoulder injury — during Spring Training put him on the Injured List to open the 2019 season. He struggled upon his return to Charlotte before being struck in the jaw by a line drive in June, needing reconstructive surgery and ending a nightmare season. Hamilton’s three Spring Training appearances suggest there’s more rust to be shed.

Another high-helium guy who looked terrific in Spring Training this year is Codi Heuer. The 23-year-old right hander finished 2019 with 11 saves (in 16 chances), 65 strikeouts and a 1.09 WHIP across 67.2 innings in Winston-Salem and Birmingham, and is likely to open the season in the Knights’ pen.

Drafted by the Sox as a starter out of Wichita State in 2018, Heuer eventually found himself in the bullpen, a move that turned around his pro career. Says Baseball Savant: “His stuff and control improved in shorter stints, enabling him to rocket to AA. After operating with a 92-94 mph fastball as a starter, Heuer now deals in the mid-90s and tops out at 98, with run and sink that produced a 2:1 groundout/airout ratio in his first full pro season. He also added more bite and power to his mid-80s slider, which has become a solid pitch that neutralizes right-handers. He occasionally breaks out his changeup, which features some sink. There’s some funkiness to his slightly-below-three-quarters delivery that provides him with deception.”

The White Sox are also hoping that 26-year-old Caleb Frare can regain his lights-out form of 2018 when the lefty was dominating in AAA and a brief call-up to Chicago. Injuries and an uneven performance prompted the White Sox to not tender Frare a contract at the end of last season, instead bringing him back in 2020 on a minor league deal. Frare relies on a four-seam fastball that he uses 60% of the time, along with a slider.

Tyler Johnson is yet another name to keep an eye on as 2020 unfolds. Johnson is likely to start the season in Birmingham, but could find his way to Charlotte quickly if he recaptures the momentum he had in 2017-2018 before an injury last Spring limited him to just 31.1 innings. A fifth-round draft pick by the White Sox in 2017, the former South Carolina Gamecock boasts 169 strikeouts, a 1.10 WHIP and a 2.27 ERA across 115 innings in his minor league career.

Conversely, Kodi Medeiros has a less-than-stellar minor league pitching resume. In six seasons and 545 innings, the lefty sports a 1.48 WHIP and 4.77 ERA. Yet cautious optimism remains, based on Medeiros’ transition in 2019 from starter to reliever.

After nine disappointing starts for Birmingham last year, Medeiros moved to the Barons’ pen and began to revive his career. In 19 relief appearances, he surrendered just 12 earned runs in 42.1 innings, for a 2.57 ERA, in a role that better utilized his mid-90s fastball, sweeping slider and decent change-up. Medeiros was bumped from the 40-man roster when the White Sox signed Edwin Encarnacion, but he cleared waivers, was assigned to Charlotte and attended Spring Training, where he flashed promise despite mixed results.

There is also interesting upside in still other lesser known bullpen arms. Tayron Guerrero had 46 unremarkable innings with the Marlins in 2019 but boasts a fastball that touches 100 mph and is delivered on an imposing 6’8 frame. Jose Ruiz, 25, also was hit hard in 40 innings with the White Sox last year. But his impressive minor league career suggests that the White Sox patience with him may still be rewarded. Ruiz is on the 40-man roster as well. And Zach Thompson likely returns to Charlotte, where he pitched in 2019 with so-so results.

Finally, the White Sox will be anxious to see if Danny Dopico can continue the success he enjoyed at Birmingham in 2019, when he surrendered just 36 hits across 62.2 innings while striking out 73 and holding opposing hitters to a .168 batting average.

In sum, I will make these not-so-bold predictions for the 2020 Knights’ bullpen.

First, there will be plenty of opportunities to go around. Given the potential for another season with the major league juiced ball, an extremely hitter friendly ballpark, quality opposition and an underwhelming starting staff, there is likely to be a heavy dependence on the Knights’ pen this year.

Second, there’s too much proven talent in the Knights’ pen for one or more arms not to dominate. It is anyone’s guess as to who that will be but, based on Spring Training results, I’m giving the edge to Burdi and Foster.

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