The Covid-19 pandemic has taken precedence in these times and many are scrambling to think about what could have been. The White Sox were about to embark on a season of contention for the first time in many years.
The foundation has been laid and the bearing of fruit has begun. Some of the organization’s top prospects were expected to descend upon Chicago, while others are knocking on the doorstep of the major leagues. Some top prospects were expected to chase Rookie of the Year honors, while others were anticipating their first taste of professional baseball.
Certain hitters will enjoy the launching pad in Charlotte, whereas others will endure the challenge of the Southern League once again. The organization is littered with high-upside pitchers returning from injury, and hitters looking to rebound from offensive struggles.
Can once-promising prospects rebound and improve some of their prospect shine once and for all? Will the White Sox as an organization be healthier than ever once baseball actually begins? Ulnar collateral ligaments have been repaired, hamate bones have been fixed and achilles tendons are now fully attached. The franchise is finally in a solid place in regards to injuries and time appears to be on their side for once.
Which of the young players will ascend and put themselves on the map? Can some of these pitchers with high leverage upside fly through the system? How will the player development and coaching staff alterations affect change positively throughout the organization? Will more international talent be added to the organization and will the draft philosophy start to look different? These are just some of the storylines that our writers were looking forward to seeing unfold prior to the world stopping in its tracks.
Michael Kopech pitching, not just relying on pure stuff
Coming off a missed 2019 campaign due to Tommy John Surgery, Michael Kopech represents a major point of hope for the White Sox in 2020. Kopech arguably possesses the highest ceiling of any pitcher in the Sox system, in no small part thanks to his elite fastball and plus-plus-slider.
The only concern for Kopech throughout his development has been his issues with controlling those pitches. At every level of the minors, Kopech struggled with giving away first base. He never posted a BB/9 below 4.27 in any season, walking more than 11% of hitters he faced at every level along the way. He saw both of those numbers crater during his brief appearance in MLB near the end of 2018, but he pitched just 14.1 innings in that time and still posted an ERA of 5.02.
After missing an entire season of pitching, it’s hard to put too much stock in those numbers. The good news is that Kopech still possesses every trait you’d like to see from a future ace: he has the build and athleticism to continue to improve his mechanics in order to build up that command. More importantly, he also has the work ethic and drive to feed that improvement and development. And on the personnel side, he has an elite defensive catcher in Yasmani Grandal and a thorough and thoughtful game planner in James McCann as his backstops, along with a proven pitching coach in Don Cooper.
While Kopech’s elite fastball-slider combination and pure stuff can still carry him to success in the majors, lacking control could really limit his potential roles in the future. His pure stuff should still allow him to be a strong mid-rotation pitcher, and the worst case scenario is that he becomes an elite reliever or closer. However, if Kopech can truly hone his control and become a complete pitcher, rather than just relying on his stuff, there should be little doubt that he will reach his true ceiling and become the Sox ace of the future.
How will Dane Dunning look post-surgery
Another one of the Sox top pitching prospects who lost his 2019 to Tommy John was Dane Dunning. The 25-year old former Florida Gator was acquired in the 2016 trade that sent Adam Eaton to Nationals, and has been impressive at every minor league level he’s visited since then. Unfortunately, Dunning was shut down halfway through 2018 due to elbow soreness that eventually led to him going under the knife in early 2019.
Dunning’s return to the mound could serve as one of the most intriguing and important storylines of 2020 for the South Siders. He dominated AA before injuring his elbow in 2018, with an impressive 2.76 ERA and 2.40 FIP in 11 starts. Given that he possesses a variety of above average pitches and plus control, he’s considered by many to be a lock for the rotation in the future, though he lacks the elite level ceiling of Kopech. If he starts 2020 strong, he could put himself in a really good position. Which brings us to our next topic…
Will a shortened season improve Dunning’s chances to pitch in MLB in 2020?
As mentioned above, Dunning’s repertoire and control create an optimistic outlook for his future role within in the Sox organization. And were it not for losing his 2019 to injury, it’s fair to assume Dunning would’ve made his MLB debut last season, in large part thanks to the dearth of talent the Sox saw in their rotation.
In a perfect world, Dunning would be heading into 2020 as a lock for the rotation; instead, he heads into the shortened campaign in an unenviable position. The Sox 5-man rotation would’ve been quite easy to determine had the season started as planned.
Dunning was likely to head back to Birmingham to start the season, though many expected him to miss the early portion of the season and begin pitching in June. With baseball unlikely to start until at least that time and potentially later, Dunning may be able to start the season with the rest of the organization.
However, much uncertainty remains about what the year will hold for minor league players, meaning Dunning’s eventual assignment is harder to anticipate. Some rumors around baseball’s eventual return have suggested that any and all members of MLB teams 40-Man Rosters would be eligible to appear in games throughout the year.
If this were to happen, it would be excellent news for Dunning. While he’d likely feature mostly out of the bullpen, any appearances in the bigs would be a huge step forward for FutureSox’s No. 5 prospect. If he does feature in MLB this year, he could be lined up for a rotation spot in 2021. However, Dunning’s chances of pitching in MLB in 2020 are ultimately going to depend heavily on the final timeline and structure of the 2020 MLB season as a whole.
Photo credit: Clinton Cole/FutureSox
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