Early last week, reports surfaced that the 2020 MLB Draft would consist of just five rounds and was expected to take place on the originally scheduled date of June 10th. Jeff Passan of ESPN has the most recent details on the official agreement struck between the MLBPA and MLB.
2020 MLB Draft Format
The 2020 First Year Player Draft will take place on Wednesday June 10th and teams will handle the festivities remotely as of now. The first 37 picks will take place on night one beginning at 7 p.m ET. Rounds 2-5 (picks 38-160) will take place on Thursday June 11th at 5 p.m ET. The signing deadline will take place on August 1st.
After the first five rounds, teams may sign an unlimited amount of un-drafted players for a maximum total of $20,000 per player. The period in which clubs are permitted to sign un-drafted players begins at 9:00 am ET on April 14th. There will be a dead period (no contact with clubs) from conclusion of draft until this begins. This is a significant change as players were allowed to receive up to $125,000 without the bonus counting against a club’s pool in prior years. The pick slots are valued in correspondence to the slot values in 2019 instead of the 3.5 percent rise that was expected originally.
If a club exceeds its assigned pool, it will face a penalty. Teams that outspend their allotment by 0-5 percent pay a 75 percent tax on the overage. If a club spends over the 5 percent threshold, these are the ramifications: a first-rounder and a 75 percent tax for surpassing their pool by more than 5 and up to 10 percent; a first- and a second-rounder and a 100 percent tax for more than 10 and up to 15 percent; and two first-rounders and a 100 percent tax for more than 15 percent.
In eight years with these rules, teams have exceeded their allotments a total of 149 times but never by more than five percent. 21 of the 30 teams outspent their pools last year, according to MLB Pipeline, including the White Sox, who have done so the last three years.
The industry spent $316,560,984 on draft bonuses in 2019. In 2020, draft pools total $235,906,800 in a five round draft. All drafted players this year will only receive $100,000 of their bonus immediately with the rest of the money being deferred to 2021 and 2022. This will save clubs $220 million initially but with the deferred bonus structure, it really only saves individual teams around $1 million overall per team in the long run. The deferred bonus structures will theoretically allow teams to keep staff members around for the year without revenues currently coming in.
A club possessing five picks in 2020, will pay out $500,000 immediately. The New York Yankees only have three selections and it will cost $300,000 total. The Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox have four selections which will cost them $400,000. Multiple teams receiving competitive balance selections will choose six players, while the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals possess seven total pick, each costing them $700,000 initially.
Since the bonus pool structure was instituted back in 2012, Adley Rutschman has received the highest bonus. The Baltimore Orioles selected the switch-hitting catcher out of Oregon State in 2019 and paid him $8.1 million.
In 2020, the Detroit Tigers hold the 1st overall selection and it comes with a recommended pool slot of $8,415,300. If Detroit decides to take Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson with that selection, he’ll be subjected to a deferred bonus structure.
If receiving the full slot amount, the player would get $100,000 immediately with payments of around $4.15 million in 2021 and another $4.15 million in 2022. This is how it would it would work for every choice in the upcoming draft. It has yet to be announced what the television production for the 2020 MLB Draft will entail but it’s expected to take place live on MLB network.
Specifics for the Chicago White Sox
The White Sox hold the 11th overall pick in the first round of the 2020 MLB Draft. The selection carries a slot amount of $4,547,500. The club’s total five round pool for the draft will equal $7,764,800.
If the organization chooses to spend up to 5 percent over that total, it would bring the final tally to $8,153,040. The overage tax (75 percent of that number) would consist of an additional $291,180. It would essentially cost the organization nearly $680,000 extra to spend the maximum amount allowed on their five new selections.
The White Sox have spent close to 5 percent over their bonus pool in their past three drafts and it’ll be interesting to see if that’s a trend that continues with these modified rules. Similar to the other teams with five draft picks, the White Sox will only pay $500,000 ($100,000 for each player) initially for their 2020 draft class.
Mike Shirley will lead his first draft with the organization as Director of Amateur Scouting and his methodology will be an interesting storyline to digest at the draft’s conclusion. Shirley has been very involved recently and possessed a significant voice in favor of some of the strategical changes that were apparent throughout the 2019 draft.
The White Sox have placed an emphasis on college talent throughout this decade and especially under Nick Hostetler the last four years. The Pale Hose haven’t chosen a high school player in the first round since 2012, but the organization made a concerted effort to get younger in last year’s draft.
The franchise spent nearly $4.5 million on prep talents in rounds 2-4 in 2019. In addition to Matthew Thompson, Andrew Dalquist and James Beard, the club spent another $945,000 on five prep players (Victor Torres, Misael Gonzalez Acosta, D.J. Gladney, Logan Glass and Chase Krogman) in rounds 11-40.
The White Sox won’t be able to add high upside flyers like last year in day three under the abbreviated format of 2020. Despite the rule changes, however, the organization can still add impactful talent to a farm system that is still pretty well regarded throughout the game.
In addition to picking 11th overall in round one, the decision makers will select again at #47 overall in round two and 83rd overall in the third round. How the organization decides to deploy their resources will be something to monitor under new leadership. The White Sox have a large amateur scouting staff with plenty of boots on the ground and that could theoretically help them in their quest to land promising talent in the marketplace once the draft concludes as well. Below are the official bonus pools for the White Sox in regards to the 2020 draft.
1st Round: 11. $4,547,500
2nd Round: 47. $1,580,200
3rd Round: 83. $733,100
4th Round: 112. $517,400
5th Round: 142. $386,600
Ramifications for Players and Others
There will be 160 players drafted in the 2020 MLB Draft. In 2019, 1,200 players were drafted overall and there will be an 87 percent reduction this year. Major league clubs will save nearly $30 million on the whole and over $220 million initially with the change in format.
Every drafted player will receive deferred payments and it could be a critical element for some players in deciding their immediate or ultimate futures. Keith Law of The Athletic wrote a fantastic article detailing the ramifications of the 2020 Draft going forward. Law suggests that the changes for this year hurt players and the sport into the future.
As far as the players are concerned, this deal cannot be construed as good for anyone. The highly ranked players eligible to be drafted this year will all still likely be drafted and the majority will take a deferred bonus and begin a baseball career in some fashion. Prep players have some leverage as they can negotiate a bonus to their liking or uphold a college commitment and just report to campus this spring.
Some high school players will attend junior colleges and become draft eligible once again in 2021. Other prep players will have to decide whether they want to play college baseball and deal with the loaded rosters caused by this pandemic. There are a certain segment of prep players who would be draft-eligible in 2022 as sophomores and they could benefit from skipping the next two draft classes.
Current college seniors can return to school for another season of college baseball or they can take what they can get now and begin a professional career. Seniors traditionally don’t have much leverage and that won’t change by waiting another year. Some seniors will stay on campus and continue their education in some form but the majority will take the $20,000 (or much less) and sign with organizations of their choosing that best suit their personal interests.
College juniors are the segment of players most affected by the changing draft rules. Teams spent close to $56 million last year after round ten and that doesn’t even include any of the juniors taken in rounds 6-10. Juniors can return to school next year if they aren’t selected, but they’ll be a year older and competing with the players that would normally go in that range in a 20 round draft.
Due to these factors, many college juniors will likely decide to sign for under-slot bonuses, sign for $20,000 in the un-drafted market or stop playing the sport altogether. Division I programs are only allocated 11.7 college scholarships for baseball and going back to school won’t be an easy decision for players or coaching staffs.
One example of the shortened draft being a potential issue relates to Paul Goldschmidt of the St. Louis Cardinals. Goldschmidt was an 8th round selection of the Arizona Diamondbacks out of Texas State in 2009. He was never a highly regarded prospect and didn’t frequent top 100 prospect lists. He’s now one of the best players in the sport and has accumulated nearly 40 fWAR in his career. Stories like Goldschmidt will be lost in a five round draft.
When bonuses are cut and opportunities are lost, potential players will go by the wayside and players from disadvantaged backgrounds are adversely affected. Many initiatives focused on bringing disadvantaged youth to baseball and away from other sports looks to be nothing more than lip service at this moment.
Scouting departments will likely be hit commensurately as well. Many teams have started to shed traditional scouts anyway but limiting the number of players entering organizations is another sure-fire way to make scouts expendable.
While these modifications are only in effect for one season, the short-sighted decision to shorten the draft to five rounds will almost assuredly pose a long-lasting impact to the sport. And the sport of baseball already has enough problems.
Photo credit: Sean Williams/FutureSox
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