2020 Draft Preview: Jared Kelley (RHP)

NAME: Jared Kelley
SCHOOL: Refugio High School (Texas)
POSITION: RHP
HEIGHT/WEIGHT: 6’3″ 215
B/T: R/R
D.O.B.: 10/03/2001
PREVIOUSLY DRAFTED: N/A

Scouting Report

Jared Kelley is one of the most heralded prep prospects in the 2020 MLB Draft class. The big righty is committed to the University of Texas, but is unlikely to make it to Austin this fall. The right hander currently attends Refugio High School in Refugio, Texas.

The Bobcats won a state title in football in 2019, but Kelley gave up the sport to focus solely on baseball after spending his Sophomore year at quarterback. Kelley was recently named Gatorade National Baseball Player of the Year for 2019-2020. 27 former first round picks have won the Gatorade National Baseball Player of the Year Award in the past.

Kelley won the award for his athletic excellence, academic achievements and character demonstrated on and off the field. Kelley’s high school career ended with a record of 32-3 with a 0.43 ERA. Before his spring season was canceled, Jared posted posted a 3-0 record with a 0.00 ERA and 34 strikeouts over the course of 12 innings. In addition to starring as an athlete in southeastern Texas, Kelley has been an exemplary member of the community as well.

In 2017, Hurricane Harvey destructively swept through the region and destroyed much of Refugio and neighboring areas. In response to the destruction, the then Sophomore helped load and unload supplies while also delivering food and clothes to many who needed the support.

Kelley also helped the city remove debris that had accumulated from the impact of the devastating storm. The right hander has also been a frequent visitor to Rady Children’s Hospital in San Diego in addition to his volunteer work as an umpire with the Refugio Little League Baseball Association.

Jared Kelley from the UA All American Game in Chicago courtesy of 2080 Baseball

Kelley from Perfect Game National courtesy of ProspectsLive

Kelley striking out 12 in a Texas high school playoff game from MaxPreps

Scouting Grades

*Scouting grades are according to MLB Pipeline’s rankings, grades may vary between different publications*

Fastball: 65
Slider: 55
Changeup: 60
Control: 55
Overall: 55

Prospect Overview and Future Outlook

Jared Kelley will likely be the first drafted player to come out of Refugio High School. MLBPipeline states that the 18-year-old entered the year rated as the nation’s top high school prospect and they rank him as the best prep pitcher to come out of Texas since Jameson Taillon in 2010. Kelley was excellent on the showcase circuit last summer and that included a stellar performance during the Area Code Games.

Kelley’s 65-grade fastball sits in the 93-96 mph range and touches 98 regularly. He creates a lot of velocity while displaying a low-effort delivery. His changeup is already an advanced offering as well. The pitch shows fade and sink and the right hander is willing to throw it in any count. Kelley’s third pitch is a hard slurve that sits in the low 80’s. The pitch lacks consistency but he hasn’t had to throw it often and could be above average in the future.

The prep righty in general is a controversial demographic but Kelley has “now stuff” and a “great feel” for pitching. He really pounds the strike zone and has the look of a frontline workhorse. The publication lists Jared Kelley as the #12 prospect in the upcoming class.

Baseball America also ranks the Texas right hander as the #12 overall prospect in the 2020 class. The publication calls Kelley “a man among boys in the high school class.” They also write that he’s “the most MLB-ready prep pitcher thanks to his current stuff and physicality.”

BA notes that he “looks like he’s playing catch on the mound” due to a loose, fluid delivery and little to no head whack in his finish. Kelley has premium stuff and locates it with ease. The fastball “explodes” out of his hand and his low 80’s changeup comes with good arm speed. It’s a swing-and-miss pitch with excellent diving life and he spots it similarly to his fastball.

Even in a shortened campaign this spring, scouts witnessed improvement on Kelley’s inconsistent breaking ball. The inconsistent breaking ball is working against his already risky profile. Being a hard-throwing prep right hander without a dominant breaking ball can be worrisome for clubs. Baseball America states that Kelley does “several things at an exceptionally high-level that are impossible to teach” though and they project him as a future No. 2 starter.

Kiley McDaniel of ESPN ranks Jared Kelley as the No. 7 overall prospect in the class. The prospect writer and former big league executive lauds Kelley for being a “prep arm who throws up to 100 mph but is surprisingly under control given his arm speed.”

Keith Law of The Athletic lists Jared Kelley as 18th overall in the class. Law calls him “the latest model out of the Texas High School Pitching Factory.” Law notes that he’s tall and strong and hits 98 mph with a power breaking ball and a changeup.

Mock Draft Outcomes

In our Mock Draft 2.0 here at FutureSox, I projected Jared Kelley to the Chicago White Sox with the 11th overall pick. The scouting department was all over the righty this spring and he’s one of their realistic options. Baseball America’s latest attempt from Carlos Collazo sends Kelley to the Washington Nationals. Collazo states that “there’s a solid chance that Kelley goes inside the top 15, but deciphering which landing spot has been tricky at this point.”

Over at MLB Pipeline, the latest mock from Jim Callis sends Jared Kelley to the Cleveland Indians at No. 23. Jonathan Mayo projects the Texas prep to the New York Mets at 19 overall, however. In Keith Law’s latest iteration, Jared Kelley goes to the Indians as well.

There seems to be a theme forming in mock drafts because Kiley McDaniel of ESPN also projects Kelley to Cleveland. McDaniel notes that “Kelley has been sliding in recent weeks” and “it’s becoming clear that teams don’t love prep righties with now stuff and now bodies.” In Eric Longenhagen’s first attempt at Fangraphs, he chose the Indians as Kelley’s landing spot as well.

Potential Fit with the White Sox

The Chicago White Sox haven’t selected a high school pitcher in the first round since taking Kris Honel out of Providence Catholic back in 2001. The organization hasn’t used a first rounder on a prep player in general since selecting outfielder Courtney Hawkins out of Mary Carroll High School in Corpus Christi, Texas in 2012. It’s the same organization with many of the same figures at the top but the philosophy looks to be changing.

Over the last four years, the organization made a concerted effort to accumulate young talent and rebuild the infrastructure of the minor league system. College heavy draft classes have been one of the founding principles of this strategy. Under Nick Hostetler, the White Sox have selected college hitters with their first draft choice over the last four years. While that could happen again, the scouting department under new director Mike Shirley’s leadership has casted a wider net.

Jared Kelley is a realistic option for the White Sox in the first round despite his risky profile. The franchise added 8 prep talents in last year’s class including over-slot pitchers in rounds two and three. The organization won’t be afraid to select a prep player with the 11th overall pick in 2020. White Sox’s scouts were present for Jared Kelley’s appearances this spring and they tracked his summer circuit prowess as well. He’s even participated in recent Zoom conference calls with members of the organization in recent weeks.

Jared Kelley would join Matthew Thompson, Andrew Dalquist and Norge Vera as young pitching prospects in the the system. Kelley would immediately become one of the best pitching prospects in a top heavy system and would be a candidate for top-100 prospect lists for publications across the industry.

Photo credit: Donald Boyles/YouTube

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