School: South Carolina
Position: RHP
Height/Weight: 6’2” 232 lbs
B/T: R/R
D.O.B.: 2/19/1999
Previously Drafted: Never
Scouting Report
Carmen Mlodzinski is a right-handed pitcher who has spent the entirety of his student-athletic career playing in South Carolina. A member of the high school class of 2017, Mlodzinski was the Palmetto State’s top ranked high school prospect as a senior. In his final high school season, he was an honorable mention Perfect Game All-American, named All-South Carolina first team, and was the South Carolina 4A Player of the Year. Despite his success in the high school ranks, Mlodzinski withdrew his name from the 2017 MLB Draft, as he felt he was not ready to go pro, and cemented his intention to play for his homestate Gamecocks.
At the University of South Carolina, Mlodzinski stepped right into the team as a freshman swingman, appearing in 19 games and starting 7 of them. His stats weren’t great, with a 5.52 ERA and 1.469 WHIP, but he did post an 8.5 K/9, not exactly unimpressive as a freshman in the SEC. In 2019, his sophomore year he stepped right into the Gameckocks’ #1 starter role before an ankle injury ended his season after just three starts.
Mlodzinski went on to recover in time to pitch in the Cape Cod League over the summer, where he was the best pitcher in the league. In six stars, Mlodzinski went 2-0 with a 2.15 ERA, 0.648 WHIP, 12.3 K/9, and a measly 1.2 BB/9. His incredible performance in the Cape Cod cemented his status as one of the best college pitchers in the country, as well as one of the top prospects in the 2020 Draft. Heading into the 2020 NCAA season, he was named a Preseason 2nd-Team All-American by Baseball America. He was off to a strong start to the season, with a 2.82 ERA in four starts before the season was cancelled.
Pitching at South Carolina courtesy of Gutter Tower
A Feature story on Carmen Mlodzinski
Mlodzinski pitching on The Cape courtesy of D1 Baseball
Scouting Grades
*Scouting grades are according to MLB Pipeline, grades may vary between different publications*
FASTBALL: 60
CHANGEUP: 55
SLIDER: 55
CONTROL: 50
OVERALL: 50
Prospect Overview and Future Outlook
Mlodzinski sits in the low-to-mid 90’s with his fastball, with scouting reports consistently citing the 92-96 MPH range being his home. Some reports indicate he can touch up to 99 at times, as well. Aiding the velocity on the fastball is impressive spin that leads to both a good amount of run and sink. The velocity and movement on his fastball make it a plus offering and a solid headliner to his repertoire.
In addition, Mlodzinski boasts a low-80’s slider that often serves as his putaway pitch but is at times inconsistent. MLB Pipeline notes that the slider features “power and depth” but “sometimes morphs into a cutter.” He also has a solid feel for his sinking changeup, which compliments his fastball well, but still has room to improve. With some positive development and improved consistency of his pitches and mechanics, Mlodzinski could end up featuring three plus pitches in the future.
That repertoire and his solid, athletic frame at 6’2”, 232 pounds give him solid upside as a mid-rotation starter. The main concern regarding him reaching that ceiling is his overall ability to miss bats. Despite his impressive 40/4 K/BB ratio and 12.3 K/9 in the Cape Cod last year, he’s never consistently overpowered hitters in college to the point of impressive strikeout numbers, and struggled with the free passes a bit at times as well. If he can’t start missing bats more consistently, there could be some serious questions about his future.
Overall, Mlodzinski is somewhat hard to pin down as a prospect, but he is a solid pitcher with a high-potential three pitch mix and strong upside in the future.
Mock Draft Outcomes
Given the difficulty with projecting Mlodzinski’s future, there is a decent amount of variance in his appearance on mock drafts. The highest he’s been projected was 18th overall to the Arizona Diamondbacks, from The Athletic’s Keith Law. In Law’s updated projection however, the right hander is falling out of the first round. Prospects Live, meanwhile, has him to the Washington Nationals at 22, and CBS Sports projects him to the Twins at 27.
On the lower end, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel mocked the Gamecock product to go to the Colorado Rockies with the 35th pick. Carlos Collazo of Baseball America sends Mlodzinski to the Rockies in the competitive balance round as well. Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen recently released his first mock draft of the first 29 picks, which didn’t feature Mlodzinski at all.
Potential Fit with the White Sox
Mlodzinski would be an intriguing addition to the White Sox’ minor league system, though potentially something of a redundant one with the likes of Dane Dunning and Jonathan Stiever already in the system. Mlodzinski’s pitch offerings, profile, frame, and overall ceiling is very similar to those of Dunning and Stiever. That is not a bad thing, though, as you can never have enough high-upside pitchers in your system.
The only potential issue with projecting the Gamecock into the Sox’ system is the draft fit. Drafting Mlodzinski with the No. 11 overall pick would be something of a reach, as there will be much better talent on the board and potentially better college pitchers, at that. Taking Mlodzinski at 11 would likely be the result of strong conviction in the Sox’ draft room, or an effort to save money with an underslot deal to push more talent further down the board later.
But while picking Mlodzinski at 11 would be an overdraft, it’s highly unlikely he’d still be available at the Sox’ next draft pick at No. 47 without some good fortune on the Sox’ end. There is also the possibility that the Sox could like Mlodzinski enough to try a move like I mentioned above, but the other way around by floating him to 47 with an overslot offer.
Photo credit: Allen Sharpe/Gamecocks Athletics
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