Where do Garrett Crochet and Jared Kelley rank in the White Sox system?

We are all about prospect rankings at FutureSox, but it’s hard to re-rank the White Sox system when there’s no minor league season.

We won’t be doing an update to our rankings any time soon. That said, the draft meant the organization added two players who immediately slot into the top 10 prospects of the system. First-rounder Garrett Crochet and second-rounder Jared Kelley are two high-end pitching prospects. Our writers gave their view on where they think both rank in the White Sox farm system.

Dan Santaromita

I have Crochet sixth. The top four of Luis Robert, Michael Kopech, Andrew Vaughn and Nick Madrigal are still safe. I also put Dane Dunning coming off Tommy John surgery ahead of Crochet. Before the injury, Dunning was on track to be a solid mid-rotation starter. That’s probably Crochet’s ceiling anyway. Scouting director Mike Shirley referred to Crochet as a No. 3 and Dunning has a similar ceiling with success in Double-A.

When comparing Crochet to Jonathan Stiever I gave Crochet the edge. For one, Crochet is a lefty so he gets a bit more value for that. Stiever has proven more in the minors obviously, but there are still scouts who think he may end up as a reliever. The same can be said about Crochet so I think they break even on the reliever risk.

I have Kelley seventh, just behind Crochet. I think Kelley has more raw stuff than Stiever. As for Crochet vs. Kelley, if the White Sox thought Kelley was better than Crochet they would have grabbed him with the 11th pick. It also sounds like Crochet is likely to get a bigger signing bonus than Kelley, more evidence to that. It does seem like a lot of draft boards had the two fairly close so this could easily flip once they make their pro debuts and we have more information to work with.

For now I’m keeping Crochet ahead of Kelley, but I know we all won’t…

James Fox

I think Kelley slots in firmly right at five. None of these guys are crossing that threshold of that top four. So then you’re talking Kelley, Crochet and the guys that are already in the system, probably Dunning and Stiever. I think Kelley is a better prospect than Crochet is. The southpaw from Tennessee could absolutely make me incorrect here though if he ends up being what Mike Shirley and the scouting staff think he is.

I thought Kelley was the best high school pitcher in the class. I would have been completely fine taking Kelley with the 11th overall pick in the draft so I would probably slot him five and I would have no problem with Crochet at six, but I would understand if somebody wanted to put Stiever or Dunning in front of Crochet. Just looking at top 100 lists, I don’t think Crochet is going to be on one, at least right away. Dunning has been in the past and I think Stiever was on his way to doing that. Those guys are all kind of similar. Crochet obviously has age on his side, being a 20-year-old and the latest first-round pick.

The White Sox have some promising pitching in their system currently. Jared Kelley, Garrett Crochet, Dane Dunning and Jonathan Stiever slide in the spots at 5-8. That leaves Matthew Thompson, Andrew Dalquist and eventually Norge Vera potentially knocking on the door once baseball eventually happens again however.

Sean Williams

I have Kelley at five because I think he probably has a higher ceiling than Crochet. I know Crochet has a pretty high ceiling, too, when you look at everything he has to offer, but I think Kelley has a little bit higher ceiling than him.

I want to put Crochet right behind Kelley, but at the same time I have a hard time putting Dunning behind him. Right now I would keep Dunning ahead of Crochet and have Crochet right behind him. Obviously there’s a chance for Crochet to rise when you consider everything he has and starts getting more experience.

Steve Hasman

Kelley slots in at the fifth position for me, behind Robert, Kopech, Vaughn and Madrigal, respectively. Garrett Crochet checks in one spot behind Kelley. 

Averaging out the rankings of MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, Fangraphs, ESPN and The Athletic, Kelley just narrowly edges out Crochet for being the higher ranked prospect by the industry. While his conditioning may need to improve, Kelley hasn’t faced any durability questions (to this point) in his young career, whereas Crochet is already viewed by some in the industry as a reliever moving forward. Both Crochet and Kelley have power arsenals, but Kelley is said to have a better handle on his control at this moment in time.

All in all, both of these players have stuff to dream on and I’m excited that both of these high powered arms are in the White Sox system. I can’t wait to see how they perform, whenever they’re able to get back on the field.

Mike Rankin

Looking back at my preseason individual top 30 list (for patrons), I ranked Jonathan Stiever No. 5 and Dane Dunning No. 6. I won’t change the order, but I will knock each down two spots.

Crochet slots in at five and Kelley six for me. I’m a huge fan of Crochet for several reasons and I do believe he will ultimately earn a spot in the White Sox rotation. Kelley is mature in his build and has two plus-pitches already at just 18 years old. What’s exciting is the fact all four aforementioned names are trending toward the Major League rotation and the separation between them is marginal.

I marked Crochet at five because starting caliber left-handers with a high-90s fastball, plus changeup and a slider with positive spin rates thrown from his arm slot are incredibly hard to come by. He only logged 132 innings across his collegiate career, which I believe suggests his left wing has a ton of life left. The fact Crochet’s started merely 13 of his 36 appearances at Tennessee means almost nothing to me. Mike Shirley and the Sox took Crochet to be a starter. He will develop in the system as such and will be prepared as soon as they plan to send him out there regularly every fifth day.

I believe Kelley has a great head on his shoulders for an 18-year-old professional. The track record is evidenced by his prior success and there does not appear to be any red flags related to work ethic. That should allow the Sox to feel confident in Kelley’s ability to grind his way through a developmental program. The organization has a calculated way of moving talent through the system, so I’m curious about the specifics they’ll work on with this young talent.

Kelley is above Stiever and Dunning because of potential. He is just not as advanced in his development compared to Crochet, in my opinion, which is why I have him slotted one spot below the first rounder.

Photo credit: Andrew Ferguson/Tennessee Athletics

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