NAME: Gunnar Hoglund
SCHOOL: MIssissippi
POSITION: RHP
HEIGHT/WEIGHT: 6’4″, 220 lbs
B/T: L/R
D.O.B.: December 17, 1999
PREVIOUSLY DRAFTED: Pittsburgh Pirates, 2018 – CBA (36 overall)
SCOUTING REPORT
The name Gunnar Hoglund is not new in the Draft World. The Floridian was firmly on the radar as a potential first rounder as far back as 2018, when the Pittsburgh Pirates selected him in the supplemental round (36th overall) out of Fivay High School in Hudson, just north of Tampa, Florida. Despite the close to $2 million signing bonus attached to the slot, Hoglund did not sign with the Pirates. Though there are differing stories out there about the how and why Hoglund turned down Pittsburgh (MLB Pipeline claims a post-draft physical, whereas other outlets state Hoglund’s desire to attend Ole Miss after partaking in their summer school project), the end-result was that the right-hander joined the Rebels.
First-rounders who turn down a big league contract to attend college better be sure of themselves or know for sure they will improve enough to warrant another first-round selection a few years down the road. For Hoglund, this was made even more difficult with how polished he already was in High School. He sat 90-93 and touched 95 mph as a senior for Fivay HS and combined the heater with an average curveball, good changeup and excellent control over all his pitches. In his final year as a prep, he faced 186 batters, struck out (just) 105, but also walked just… two — both were in his final game of the season, when he had the flu.
During his first year with the Rebels, the further development of his pitching abilities seemed to have stalled. He ditched the curveball in favor of a slider and the adjustment took longer than expected. In 2019, Hoglund started 16 games for Ole Miss, pitched 68 innings, struck out 53, walked 14 and (most importantly) gave up over a hit per inning (77) and finished the season with a 5.29 ERA. The fastball velocity remained around 92 mph and neither off-speed pitches improved enough to gain attention.
Fortunately for Hoglund, this changed in his sophomore season in Oxford, Mississippi. In the abbreviated 2020 season, Hoglund’s velocity ticked up a little and so did the strikouts (37 in 23.1 IP). Hoglund was excellent in four starts in 2020, and showed further improvement in 2021. The fastball now sits at 94-95, the slider has tightened up and the changeup remains an interesting third pitch. The re-introduction of his curveball helped Hoglund add another dimension to his arsenal. The k-rate jumped up tremendously, from 7.09 K/9 in 2019 to an average of 14.00 K/9 over 2020 and 2021. Hoglund’s season ended with 96 punch outs in 62.2 innings and just 17 walks.
Notice how I wrote “Hoglund’s season ended” in the previous paragraph. For all the good news about Hoglund’s development, there is also some bad: the right-hander was injured in May and underwent Tommy John surgery to fix his torn UCL on May 18. Though this development will most certainly drop him a few spots in the Draft, there is still a solid chance the righty goes in the first round, or even the top 20.
As Carlos Collazo wrote on Baseball America, there is some precedent for top arms to be drafted shortly after undergoing surgery. Jeff Hoffman (9th overall, 2014) and Erick Fedde (18th overal, 2014) both underwent TJ just months before their draft. Walker Buehler went 24th overall to the Dodgers in 2015, but had to undergo the same procedure shortly after the draft. J.T. Ginn went in the second round of the 2020 draft while recovering from TJ, but he still received a first-round bonus.
SCOUTING GRADES
These scouting grades are from mlbpipeline.com. Hoglund’s grades probably fluctuate across publications.
FASTBALL: 55
CURVEBALL: 50
SLIDER: 55
CHANGEUP: 50
CONTROL: 55
OVERALL: 50
PROSPECT OVERVIEW AND FUTURE OUTLOOK
If the new and improved Hoglund we saw in early 2021 is the guy we’ll see after his return from injury, he looks like a future big league starter with excellent tunneling abilities, great control and above average spin rates. Many teams looking for a quick infusion of big league ready starting pitching may be interested in the right-hander. He profiles as a middle-to-back-end of the rotation workhorse.
MOCK DRAFTS
In their most recent Mock Draft ($), and the first one after Hoglund’s injury, Baseball America mocked the pitcher to the Cardinals #18. Previously, BA pegged him as a top 10 pick. Prospects Live slots Hoglund in at #15 to the Milwaukee Brewers. James Fox’ most recent Mock Draft drops Hoglund into the laps of the defending World Series Champions at #29. Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline slots the righty to the Cardinals at #18 in his latest and Jonathan Mayo sends him to the Yankees at #20. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel dropped Hoglund to the 15-25 range after the TJ news and sent him to Miami in his most recent projection of round one. Bleacher Report is unafraid of the injury and predicts the Nationals at #11 to take yet another high(er) risk pitcher in the first round. Keith Law of The Athletic projects Hoglund to the Oakland Athletics at #25 and the guys at FanGraphs have recently written that the New York Yankees appear to be his floor at #20 overall.
POTENTIAL FIT WITH WHITE SOX
Hoglund’s injury and subsequent surgery suddenly make the White Sox a potential destination at #22 for the right-hander, though most Mock Drafts have the organization looking at prep position players. For obvious reasons, Hoglund would fit the White Sox, though he lacks the high-octane arm that the org has been gathering over the last four to five years. His control-heavy presence would speed him up the ranks in the system though.
Photo credit: Ole Miss Athletics
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