NAME: Jaden Hill
SCHOOL: LSU
POSITION: RHP
HEIGHT/WEIGHT: 6’4″, 234 lbs
B/T: R/R
D.O.B.: December 22, 1999
PREVIOUSLY DRAFTED: St. Louis Cardinals, 2018 – 38th round (1143 overall)
SCOUTING REPORT
When thinking about the prototypical pitcher, having a large, imposing figure on the mound can let a pitchers presence be felt before they’ve even thrown a pitch. Jaden Hill’s stature meets that criteria. Standing at 6’4″ 234 lbs, the big righty out of LSU is certainly an intriguing prospect in the 2021 draft.
Hill attended Ashdown High School in Arkansas and was a multi-sport athlete (three-star quarterback recruit), however, his talent on the diamond stood tall. In the 2018 draft, Hill was ranked as the 86th prospect by Baseball America, 78th by MLB Pipeline, and 64th by Perfect Game, while being the top prep player in the state of Arkansas. Hill had a strong commitment to LSU which was known to MLB clubs coming into the draft, as evidenced by his 38th round selection by the Cardinals.
Coming out of high school, Hill was known more as a fastball/changeup pitcher. After arriving in Baton Rouge, the development of his slider truly elevated his game.
Hill was a starter during his freshman season, but a strained ulnar collateral ligament (UCL), and ultimately surgery on his collarbone (addressing a previous high school football injury) shortened his 2019 season. In 10 innings, the Arkansas native had two starts, allowed six hits, two runs (two earned), walked three batters, struck out 11, a 1.80 ERA and had a .162 Batting Average Against.
Coming back from injury in 2020, Hill was working out of the bullpen and dominating the opposition (until the COVID-19 pandemic cut that season short). In four appearances, the big righty threw 11.2 innings, allowed just one hit, no runs, walked five, struck out 17, had two saves, and a 0.00 ERA with a .028 Batting Average Against.
In the 2021 season, Hill was the opening day and Friday night starter for the Tigers. The right-hander was excellent in his first two starts of the year versus Air Force and Youngstown State. He threw a total of 10 innings across the two starts, allowing just 4 hits, didn’t issue a walk (he did have one wild pitch and hit batter), struck out nine, and allowed no runs to cross the plate.
Four out of the next five starts however, didn’t go the way Hill would’ve hoped. The Tigers ace lasted only one/third of an inning against Oral Roberts after allowing eight earned runs. Hill was sharp in his next outing against UT San Antonio, but faced stiff competition in Mississippi State with his next start.
Hill battled for most of the game, but the Bulldogs finally got to him late. Mississippi State pushed across four runs (combined) in the seventh and eighth innings to put some blemishes on his final line (7.1 innings pitched, nine hits, six runs [six earned], two walks, two strikeouts, allowed one home run, and hit one batter).
Hill’s next two starts against Tennessee and Vanderbilt didn’t go swimmingly either, as in a total of 5.1 innings, the Arkansan hurler allowed seven hits, nine runs (eight earned), walked six, struck out eight, and allowed two home runs. Hill left his start against Vanderbilt after just 1.1 innings with an apparent injury, which was later confirmed to be a torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) in his right elbow.
Hill underwent Tommy John surgery in April and is in the recovery process now. Ultimately, his junior season ended with 29.2 innings pitched, 29 hits allowed, 23 runs (22 earned), walked 12, struck out 25, a 6.67 ERA with a .248 Batting Average Against.
SCOUTING GRADES
These scouting grades are from mlbpipeline.com. Hill’s grades may fluctuate across publications.
FASTBALL: 65
SLIDER: 55
CHANGEUP: 60
CONTROL: 50
OVERALL: 50
PROSPECT OVERVIEW AND FUTURE OUTLOOK
Going back to a tidbit from the scouting report, coming out of high school Hill was known for a fastball/changeup combination. What really helped his stock and ceiling grow was the development of his slider at LSU.
Hill’s fastball sat in the high 90’s when he was a reliever in 2020, and MLB Pipeline has stated that he was sitting at 95-97 while topping out at 99 as a starter. Hill’s changeup is considered a plus pitch and sits around the mid 80’s with good downward action. The power slider was refined (according to Baseball America, he was told to throw his slider like he was throwing a football) and it flashed as a plus pitch, although it didn’t show as well during this season.
Hill also has a cutter in his arsenal, although Fangraphs has connected the slider and cutter, saying it usually sits in the 88-90 mph range. Hill does posses the frame that many in the industry love from pitchers, which is something that can’t be taught. While his command could be improved a bit, durability is a concern with the 6’4″ righty.
Scouts aren’t convinced that he’d be able to make it in a starting role at the next level, and the track record gives some credence to those questions. Although the 2020 season being shortened by a global pandemic was out of Hill’s (and everyone’s) control, his 2019 and 2021 season ending early due to injury do draw concerns. He’d also need to be able to maintain his excellent stuff over the course of a full season, something the Arkansas native hasn’t shown (or truly, had the opportunity to show) that he can do to this point.
Even though the righty has already undergone Tommy John, it will take time at the next level for Hill to build up innings as a starter. Hill could be an impact, high leverage reliever with closer upside if starting doesn’t work out.
MOCK DRAFTS
Jaden Hill was seen as a top ten prospect in this draft class coming into the season but he hasn’t been listed in first round mock drafts since undergoing Tommy John surgery on his right elbow. Hill will likely begin his professional career but he’s more likely to be selected in the compensation round or during a later round for an over-slot bonus. It would be a surprise if he doesn’t still sign for more than $3 million.
POTENTIAL FIT WITH WHITE SOX
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but the White Sox have a pretty solid track record with developing pitchers. Hill has the upside and pure stuff that would be a fantastic addition to the system, especially if he holds up as a starter. If that isn’t in the cards, he has the ability to move rather quickly as a relief pitcher.
If Hill was healthy all season, there was hype around him being a possible mid to top 10 selection. Now with his injury/recovery, Hill is likely to be available when it’s time for the White Sox to make their selection at pick 22.
The White Sox haven’t shied away from big stuff/limited track record college pitchers (see Crochet, Garrett in 2020), but Hill seems like an unlikely selection at pick 22. The LSU Tiger sliding to late in the second round seems rather unlikely as well, but the White Sox were able to float Jared Kelley’s to that point in 2020, so there’s technically a chance, however unlikely it may be. With Hill likely seeking a bonus in excess of $3 million, it probably isn’t in the cards for the White Sox with either of their first two picks.
Photo credit: Gus Stark
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