When FutureSox releases its updated Top 30 prospect list in the next few days, Blake Rutherford will not be included. It is a precipitous fall for the former 18th overall pick in 2016, and 13th best White Sox FutureSox prospect this past spring.
What happened?
Here’s a look at his season — by the numbers — through 86 games (8/12/21), which is shortly after the FutureSox staff convened to hammer out an updated Top 30 list.
Without access to proprietary White Sox data, I turned to Baseball Savant, FanGraphs and other public websites that track minor leaguers. I’ll also offer some personal observations based on conversations with Rutherford and his coaches, and watching him for two-thirds of a season so far in Charlotte.
First, the numbers.
Rutherford had solid stats in the low minors with the Yankees, and followed that up with an excellent 2018 in Winston-Salem, where he had a slash line of .293/.345/.436. His numbers dipped in Birmingham, which is normal for White Sox prospects, given the Baron’s ballpark and the Southern League in general, but some struggles in Double-A did raise a few red flags.
But it has been in Charlotte where he seems to have regressed — at least up to the point when the FutureSox staff created its new prospect list.
Through 86 games, Rutherford led the Knights in plate appearances (by a wide margin), with 323, as the White Sox are giving him every opportunity to prove himself. His 75 hits were most on the team, and he was tied with Gavin Sheets for third in RBI, at 37. His 42 runs led the team as well.
Rutherford also had a team-high 22 doubles, with gap power to all fields, and five home runs on the season. He has an especially nice opposite-field, line-drive swing, where he has gotten 24% of his hits. He has pulled the ball another 35% of the time. He has a 25% strikeout rate, but only walks 5% of the time, which is a huge drag on his OBP.
But, he was hitting .242, with a well-below-average OBP of .282 and a subpar slugging percentage of .371.
Also disappointing, he carried a wRC+ of 71 (100 is average), and an ISO of .129 (.140 is average). According to Sports Info Solutions, which categorizes all batted balls based on air time, landing spot and trajectory, and then categorizes them based on the quality of contact, Rutherford had a somewhat low 24.9% hard-hit rate. Another 53.5% of his contact was medium, and the remaining 21.6% was soft.
Whether you attach any value to these hard-hit stats, they profile as a player whose batting average, slugging percentage, ISO and wRC+ are below the major-league average.
His splits between left- and right-handed pitchers were virtually the same. He has been solid defensively, with one error and six assists in 104 outfield chances. And he was 3-3 in stolen base attempts.
But There’s A Fly In The Ointment!
Rutherford had his best week as a Knight on the just-concluded road trip to Jacksonville. He had three doubles, a triple, a home run, four singles, seven runs and five RBI in 25 at bats. Rutherford followed that up with a home run, double and four singles in 25 at bats this week, bringing his slash line for the last 30 days to .276/.305/.469.
And this begs the question: is he finally turning the corner, or is this just a nice run in an otherwise so-so season?
For starters, I asked manager Wes Helms.
Helms acknowledges that Rutherford has struggled at the plate for long stretches of the season, but said this week that he clearly sees signs of a turnaround. Helms said Rutherford’s issues this season stemmed from adjusting his approach at the plate virtually from game to game or even at bat to at bat.
Now, Helms said, Rutherford is finally buying in to what he and hitting coach Chris Johnson are advocating, and it is beginning to pay dividends.
“He’s not leaking now,” Helms explained. “His front shoulder is staying in. A lot of guys you see whose shoulders leak don’t trust themselves in the zone. They are afraid they are going to get beat so they have to try to cheat to get there. Early in the season, Blake was doing that but now he is not. He’s seeing the ball and letting it travel and he knows his barrel is going to get there. His hard contact rate has gone up, his exit velo has gone up. He’s now actually pulling off-speed pitches that he was rolling over to first and second during the first part of the season. He’s pulling them and they are not hooking. That shows his contact point on the plate is where it should be.”
Moreover, Helms clearly sees an MLB regular in Rutherford.
“He has power,” Helms said. “He is definitely a 20-25 home run guy. Some guys just don’t show that early because their contact point is off or they are pulling off the ball and not getting the hard contact they need. In Jacksonville, he drove probably three to five balls to left field and left-center that are homers here. You keep doing that and the power is going to keep creeping up and up. Don’t chase power, the power will come.”
My Assessment
He has definitely taken a step back this year, after some nice seasons with both the Yankees and White Sox.
While most of the Triple-A ballparks he’s seeing this year are extremely hitter-friendly, that can sometimes work to a player’s disadvantage, because it is easy to sacrifice a sound plate approach and sell out for greater launch angle, and several Knights fall into this category. But I don’t think Rutherford is among them.
However, he is facing top-notch pitching, which can explain some of the regression. Because of Covid, the Knights are playing almost all of the season against Triple-A affiliates of the Braves, Marlins, Rays and Orioles. While the Baltimore roster is filled with prospects, the other three teams are loaded with highly-touted arms that have major-league experience and skills, and are complemented by talented, veteran relievers.
So, for example, it is very likely that Rutherford faced Bryce Wilson, Tucker Davidson, Kyle Muller and Kyle Wright versus Gwinnett, followed by Joe Ryan, Shane McClanahan and Brent Honeywell versus the Bulls and Edward Cabrera, Nick Neidert, Jordan Holloway and Braxton Garrett versus the Jumbo Shrimp. That is a far cry from his time in Birmingham and Winston-Salem.
Personally, Rutherford is enjoyable to talk baseball with, and is generous with his time. He may suffer from a bit of prospect fatigue, but he is only 24, so there’s still time for him to find the consistency that has eluded him this season.
Up until the last few weeks, you had to squint to see major-league talent. Now, however, he is again looking like a legitimate prospect. The final five-plus weeks of the season will be enough time to see if this turnaround is real, as his manager contends.
Rutherford’s batting average is climbing. If he could boost his walk rate, his OBP could rise to league average or better as well.
Rutherford has looked good this season defensively, with much of his time spent patrolling center field. But the FutureSox analysts who have watched Rutherford from the beginning of his minor-league career are skeptical that he has the arm for the position, which means his best chance at the major leagues is as a corner outfielder. And these days, corner outfielders have to hit for power. There are exceptions, but they are in the minority.
To that end, after his year in Birmingham, Rutherford showed up in 2020 bigger and stronger, with an extra 12 pounds of muscle, and the reports were encouraging from the Spring and the alternate site, where he was hitting the ball consistently harder and with more loft. But that power hasn’t shown up yet in Charlotte.
Time will tell if Helms is right that Rutherford is just a late bloomer and the last few weeks portend better days ahead.
But the FutureSox Top 30 is all about ceilings, not floors. And a few weeks ago, when we revised our prospect list, Rutherford’s upside looked very much in doubt. Nothing would make us happier than to be proven wrong.
Photo credit: Sean Williams/FutureSox
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