Major League Baseball’s annual winter meetings are underway in San Diego, California and will run until December 7th. Some front office personnel generally stick around for the Rule Five Draft though and it’ll take place in earnest for the first time in two years on Wednesday morning.
The Rule Four Draft remains the bigger deal for the industry but talent can be procured in this version still and opportunities are presented for players to earn a big league career while making more money than they’ve ever made before as part of a 40-man roster. This will be the first Rule Five Draft with 26-man roster rules in place and it’ll be interesting to see the effect that it has on the process.
As I wrote about previously, any players currently under contract with a club who were initially signed before the end of the 2018 MiLB season and were 18 and under at the time of signing are eligible for the big league phase of the Rule 5 draft if they are not currently on a 40-man roster. Any players who were 19 or older who signed initially before the end of the 2019 MiLB season are eligible if they are not currently on a 40-man roster.
A team must have an open 40-man roster spot to select a player in the major league phase of the Rule Five Draft. The selecting team pays $100,000 to procure a player. That player cannot be optioned to the minors during the entirety of the 2023 season and the player must spend at least 90 days on the active big league roster (days on the injured or suspended list do not count toward the 90-day limit).
WHO COULD THE WHITE SOX LOSE?
Last month, the prospect team at Baseball Prospectus offered some high praise for Dominican outfielder Luis Mieses when they ranked the 22-year-old as the tenth best prospect in the White Sox’s system. The 6-foot-3, 180 pounder hits from the left side and has done well against right handed pitching in the low minors. In 2022, Mieses posted a 108 wRC+ in High-A with the Dash and posted league average production in Double-A as well with 15 homers overall.
Mieses doesn’t walk enough though and it would be a surprise if a big league club selected him and kept him in the majors all season. He should return to Birmingham next year.
Cuban infielder Yolbert Sánchez is another top 30 prospect that the club has left unprotected but it would be a surprise to see him selected as well. The 25-year-old posted stellar numbers in Double-A which included a 157 wRC+ in 14 games to start 2022. His offensive struggles in Triple-A were immense though. He hit just .280/.324/.341 and really struggled to impact the baseball. There are just better options available for clubs looking to carry an extra position player.
Pitching could be a different story, however. Righties Declan Cronin, Caleb Freeman, Kade McClure, Lane Ramsey and Luke Shilling could be options for the rest of the league. Freeman and Shilling have the stuff to pitch with the White Sox in 2023 if they can stay healthy and pitch to their capabilities. Both have been featured on organizational prospect lists over the past two seasons but clean health and high performance eluded the pair in 2022.
McClure is a different story. Of the potential options, he’s the most likely player in the White Sox’s system to be selected in the Rule Five Draft. In his piece on 40-man deadline decisions, Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs highlighted McClure as someone the White Sox could have protected. “Amid a shift into a multi-inning relief role, [McClure] maintained command of a four pitch mix,” Longenhagen detailed in his column.
McClure told FutureSox that he “couldn’t feel better” about the switch in roles and the former sixth rounder out of Louisville noted that his stuff really played up in a bullpen role. The 6-foot-7, 220 pounder posted a 4.21 xFIP with the Knights but really found his groove in the transition to a relief role. Over the course of 37 innings, the big righty posted a 2.92 ERA with 48 strikeouts and just 11 walks. He’s looking for a big league opportunity in 2023.
WHO COULD THE WHITE SOX ADD?
The White Sox haven’t selected a player in the big league phase of the Rule Five Draft since nabbing righty Dylan Covey back in 2017. Shortstop Moises Castillo had an interesting year in the minors last season after the club took him in the minor league phase. The infielder is currently available in this year’s Rule Five Draft.
The franchise has had some success in the minor league phase of the draft in recent years. 30-year-old free agent catcher Omar Narváez has had a notable career so far and he was originally snagged by the White Sox before being dealt to the Mariners in exchange for righty Alex Colome. Yermin Mercedes had a memorable 29 game run with the White Sox in 2021 and while it didn’t last, Chicago wasn’t the expectation when the pick was made.
It’s generally easier to grab pitchers in the Rule Five Draft and it’s tougher for contenders to roster fringe players but the landscape of the 40-man roster makes the premise even more daunting. The roster currently stands at 36 with 21 pitchers occupying those spots. The White Sox possess five anticipated starters in addition to depth options like Davis Martin and Jonathan Stiever.
The bullpen also seems full and right hander Jimmy Lambert is the only member of the projected club who has minor league options. While the front office could decide that a pitcher is needed via the Rule Five Draft, a position player being selected seems most likely if the opportunity presents itself.
Luis Robert is the only outfielder on the 40-man roster who is projected to play a significant role on the 2023 club. Oscar Colás could earn a spot as well but he’s not currently on the 40-man roster. The White Sox seem to be prioritizing left-handed bats for the outfield but a right-handed hitting fourth outfielder also makes some sense as a need. Catcher is another area of potential weakness that the club could look to address via a free look throughout spring training.
The White Sox hold the 15th pick in the Rule Draft. Here are some possible options if they decide to make a selection:
Matt Gorski, outfielder – Pittsburgh Pirates
Gorski is a former second rounder out of Indiana University that hit .286/.358/.598 with 24 home runs in 81 games across three minor league levels in the Pirates’ organization in 2022. The 6-foot-4, 200 pounder can play all three outfield positions. This is a true “three outcomes” profile. Gorski strikes out way too much but posts high walk rates while showing easy plus power. He posted a 130 wRC+ in Double-A last year.
Corey Julks, outfielder – Houston Astros
Julks was an eighth round pick of the Astros in 2017 and the 6-foot-1, 185 pound outfielder hits and throws from the right side. The 26-year-old has shown big power potential while also being a stolen base threat in the minors. He profiles best in an outfield corner but has played some in center as well. Julks posted a 108 wRC+ after smacking 31 homers in Double-A last season.
Jake Mangum, outfielder – New York Mets
Mangum is a 26-year-old switch hitting outfielder who was drafted in the fourth round of the 2019 draft. The 6-foot-1, 180 pounder makes a lot of contact but possesses very little power. He doesn’t walk enough but he can play in center field. Mangum hit .333/.365/.471 with a 121 wRC+ in Triple-A last season.
Kameron Misner, outfielder – Tampa Bay Rays
Misner was the 35th overall pick of the Tampa Bay Rays out of Missouri back in 2019. The 6-foot-4, 220 pound outfielder plays above average defense in center field and plus defense in either corner. This profile contains lots of contact issues but he does have a career .373 OBP in the minor leagues. Misner posted a 120 wRC+ in Double-A while hitting 16 homers and stealing 32 bases.
Pedro Pages, catcher – St. Louis Cardinals
Pages is a 24-year-old catcher known for solid defense overall. The 6-foot-1, 230 pounder hit four homers this past season while posting a solid walk rate. Pages has always displayed an aggressive approach that has held back his offensive profile overall but altering some of his swing decisions should be part of the plan.
Blake Sabol, catcher/outfielder – Pittsburgh Pirates
Sabol was drafted in the seventh round by the Pirates back in 2019. The 24-year-old plays the outfield and catcher and he’s shown an average hit tool with above average power. The left-handed hitter posted a 157 wRC+ while hitting .296/.426/.543 for the Indians in Triple-A with Indianapolis. Sabol hit 19 homers across two level in 2022 as well.
Be sure to check into FutureSox and SoxMachine after the Rule Five Draft concludes on Wednesday.
Not a huge sample size, but Sabol’s plate discipline actually got noticeably better in AAA after being promoted from AA last year. Longenhagen said last winter that he’s not terribly polished as a catcher, and I can’t think he’s a great outfielder. So superficially: he sounds like a combo of Sheets and Collins. But he’s probably a better defender than both at C and OF, because Longenhagen’s descriptions of Collins’ receiving skills were far more brutal than Sabol’s:
“while he’s not the most polished battery mate, Sabol has a shot to be a viable defender back there.”
With Grandal’s injury issues and expiring contract, I’d love for them to take a crack at Sabol. He might indeed be just another Collins/Sheets, but I’m encouraged by the fact that he ripped AAA to shreds with a wRC+ and plate discipline much better than those two ever have done at the level, despite Collins/Sheets’ AAA home park being so incredibly offense-friendly (PF = 120) while Indianapolis’ park is noticeably pitcher-friendly (PF = 88).
Good little FG interview with him. I like the analytically-oriented mindset.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/pirates-prospect-blake-sabol-has-a-plus-bat-and-pittsburgh-connections/
Could see them picking Jake Mangum as their 4th outfielder with a chance to win left field in spring training.
Are there any friends/relatives of Aaron Judge available?
Declan Cronin is a villian from an 80s Schwarzenegger film and I won’t have my mind changed.
Sabol and Magnum look interesting…for a rebuilding team, not one supposedly in the window of contention. Sign some real major leaguers, please, Rick.
I think there’s a non-zero chance that the Sox select Sabol or Magnum and they end up a starting OF after Eloy and/or Robert get hurt this season. That’s where this team is in terms of depth of talent.
Why would Mangum be a rule 5? Is it his age?
Since we don’t sign free agents, I’d take any of those outfielders over some more Pollock/Leury/Sheets type nonsense. At least things would be interesting and they might actually know how to play the outfield.
The Marlins end up trading for Mangum instead.