The Chicago White Sox have an 82.6% chance of landing a top six selection in the 2024 Major League Baseball Draft. The club finished with the 4th worst record in the sport and because of that feat, they will enter the draft lottery with a 14.7% chance at landing the top overall pick. They will have a 14.6% chance at picking in the #2 spot in the order and a 14.4% chance of landing in the third spot instead. They have a 25% chance at landing the 5th (13.1%) or 6th (11.9%) as well.
Possessing a high draft pick is generally a silver lining to an otherwise ugly season. The new draft rules that were established in the most recent collective bargaining agreement may complicate the process for the Pale Hose however. In the new system, there is a draft lottery consisting of the 18 non-playoff teams in order to determine the first six picks. The picks will go in reverse order of winning percentage after the lottery is determined with a few exceptions.
The Oakland Athletics, Kansas City Royals and Colorado Rockies were the three worst teams in baseball and they all have the same 18.3% chance at landing the top overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft. The lottery will take place on December 5 at the Winter Meetings in Nashville. MLB Network will release the results during a television event at 4:30 pm central on the same day.
Odds to Land the #1 Pick
| Team | Odds |
| Oakland Athletics | 18.30% |
| Kansas City Royals | 18.30% |
| Colorado Rockies | 18.30% |
| Chicago White Sox | 14.70% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 8.3% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 6.1% |
| New York Mets | 4.3% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 3.0% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 2.0% |
| Washington Nationals | |
| Detroit Tigers | 1.6% |
| Boston Red Sox | 1.2% |
| San Francisco Giants | 1.0% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 0.9% |
| San Diego Padres | 0.7% |
| New York Yankees | 0.6% |
| Chicago Cubs | 0.4% |
| Seattle Mariners | 0.2% |
The Washington Nationals took LSU outfielder Dylan Crews with the 2nd overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft. As a club that pays into revenue sharing, they are ineligible to select higher than 10th overall in 2024 regardless of their record. They are ineligible for the lottery drawing altogether. According to the new collective bargaining agreement, large market clubs aren’t eligible to select in the top six picks in consecutive years and small market clubs are unable to for more than two straight seasons.
Teams that exceed the second threshold of the competitive balance tax will have their first selection dropped ten spots unless the franchise lands in the top six. The New York Mets, New York Yankees and San Diego Padres are all expected trigger the penalty. For example, if the records stayed the same, the Yankees would choose 26th instead of 16th where they’re originally slotted by record. If the Mets land a top six pick, they’ll be unaffected. However, if they end up in the 7th slot after the lottery concludes, they’ll choose 17th in the first round.
The draft order for the 12 playoff clubs was determined by their finish, revenue sharing status and reverse order of regular season winning percentage. This is the remaining draft order.
19. Miami Marlins
20. Milwaukee Brewers
21. Tampa Bay Rays
22. Toronto Blue Jays
23. Minnesota Twins
24. Baltimore Orioles
25. Los Angeles Dodgers
26. Atlanta Braves
27. Philadelphia Phillies
28. Houston Astros
29. Arizona Diamondbacks
30. Texas Rangers
The Baltimore Orioles will receive the 31st overall pick for Gunnar Henderson winning AL Rookie of the Year and The Arizona Diamondbacks have earned the 32nd pick for NL Rookie of the Year winner Corbin Carroll. If Sonny Gray departs Minnesota as a free agent this off-season, the Twins will receive the 33rd overall pick as compensation. The other clubs who have extended qualifying offers won’t receive compensation until after rounds two or four.
The White Sox will have the 4th pick in rounds 2-20 due to their 61-101 record last year. Their first round pick won’t be known until the conclusion of the draft lottery. There’s a very good chance that the Sox land a top three pick and choosing in the top six is extremely likely. There is some question as to whether that’s the best outcome though. If the club lands a top six selection for the upcoming draft, they are ineligible for the lottery next year; similarly to this year’s Nationals. The highest the club would be able to pick would be 10th overall in the 2025 draft.
With rumors of more parts being sold off in the near future and the likelihood of winning not being a huge priority, it’s expected that the 2024 White Sox won’t be very good. There’s a real argument to be made that falling out of the lottery and choosing 7th overall in the 2024 Draft could ultimately be the best case scenario for the organization. This outcome would keep them in play for a top six selection in the 2025 draft and the club is expected to be one of the worst teams in the big leagues next year.
The 2024 draft class also doesn’t appear particularly strong. The best player in the class is a college first baseman. Two of the more exciting college prospects project as second basemen in the big leagues as well. The high school class appears to be underwhelming at the moment. Many of the college pitchers also present significant reliever risk. If the White Sox land a top five draft pick in December, they’ll very likely choose a good player next July. Falling out of the top six spots and remaining eligible to land Ethan Holliday in 2025 definitely doesn’t seem like a worst case scenario at this point though.
Sad but true. The 1st pick doesn’t look that good compared to this year. Yes, 7th pick. Cubs and St. Louis get above the Sox, please.
Perhaps clubs should have the option of waiving their chance at a top six pick.
It could be deemed a penalty to have no shot at Ethan Holliday because of something beyond their control this year. It seems teams that hope to improve out of top six contention next year would welcome the chance for a top six spot this year.
The Sox can always trade the pick(1-6) to the 7th place team plus get an extra pick or prospect. This will keep the sox eligible for a top pick next year… Problem solved