On Monday at FutureSox, we released our second version of a White Sox centric first round mock draft in advance of the 2024 MLB Draft. This year’s draft will take place on July 14-16 in Fort Worth, Texas as part of its annual All Star festivities. The White Sox will have the fifth overall pick in the draft and they will make 21 selections in total after acquiring a competitive balance pick from the Seattle Mariners back in February.
The White Sox will have the 6th largest bonus pool with a total of $14,593,300 to spend. Using the 5% overage as well, the club can spend up to $15,322,965 against their allocated pool. Each selection in the top ten rounds comes with an assigned pick value and the total amount equates to what individual clubs can spend on the totality of their draft class. If a player taken in the top 10 rounds doesn’t sign, his choice’s value gets subtracted from his team’s pool.
Clubs that exceed their bonus pool face a penalty. Teams that outspend their allotment by 0-5 percent pay a 75 percent tax on the overage. At higher thresholds, teams lose future picks: a first-rounder and a 75 percent tax for surpassing their pool by more than 5 and up to 10 percent; a first- and a second-rounder and a 100 percent tax for more than 10 and up to 15 percent; and two first-rounders and a 100 percent tax for more than 15 percent. In 12 drafts under the current rules, teams have routinely spent up to the 5% but nobody has paid the penalty to go over.
On day three of the draft (rounds 11-20), players can sign for up to $150,000 without counting toward a club’s bonus pool money. For example, the White Sox selected French right hander Mathias LaCombe in the 12th round of the 2023 draft out of Cochise Junior College and they paid him $450K to sign. Due to the rules, LaCombe’s bonus would count as $300K against the pool. If the club made the selection in the 10th round instead, the entire $450K would count against the bonus pool.
The White Sox have routinely spent over their bonus pool and have done so especially with Mike Shirley as the scouting director over the past four drafts. In 2023, the organization came in with a bonus pool totaling $9,072,800 and they spent $9,517,800 which was right up to the 5% threshold. The overage totaled $445K while they also paid a tax of $333,750. In four drafts, Shirley has taken Garrett Crochet (2020), Colson Montgomery (2021), Noah Schultz (2022) and Jacob Gonzalez (2023) with first rounders.
Here are the White Sox’s selections in the top ten rounds of the 2024 draft.
| Round, Pick | Bonus Amount |
| 1. #5 overall | $7,763,700 |
| 2. #43 overall | $2,172,800 |
| 2. #68 overall | $1,197,200 |
| 3. #78 overall | $996,100 |
| 4. #107 overall | $682,800 |
| 5. #140 overall | $495,400 |
| 6. #169 overall | $375,700 |
| 7. #199 overall | $292,700 |
| 8. #229 overall | $232,200 |
| 9. #258 overall | $199,200 |
| 10. #289 overall | $185,500 |
Chicago White Sox-R1 (5th overall): Bryce Rainer, shortstop, Harvard Westlake High School (CA)
After looking like the clear best player at the National High School invitational this spring, Rainer is in a battle with Mississippi prep Konnor Griffin to be the first high schooler off the board in July. The 6-3, 195 pounder will be 19-years-old on draft day which will be a significant red flag for some times. The White Sox made a similar selection when they popped Colson Montgomery out of Indiana as a 19-year-old on draft day in 2021. White Sox’s scouts have tracked Bryce Rainer all spring.
Good look at three Bryce Rainer swings from last night. Creates plenty of stretch in the box and he's removed a lot of the negative space and the early triggers in his load from last fall. Still low-hanging fruit to get into more game power. Elite frame.pic.twitter.com/fQzN7HzuJq
— Joe Doyle (@JoeDoyleMiLB) March 27, 2024
Rainer is trying to become the fifth first rounder from Harvard-Westlake with Pete Crow-Armstrong, Lucas Giolito, Max Fried and Jack Flaherty having already gone in years past. The California prep was seen as a two-way talent up until this spring and while some clubs still like his potential on the mound, his bat has really picked up. He improved his size, strength and speed during this draft cycle as well. The infielder has a projectable body, makes consistent hard contact and projects for plus power in the future.
The Texas commit doesn’t strikeout very often and he will very likely stay at shortstop. With a double plus-arm, he’d have the potential to be a Gold Glove defender at third base if he were to move. Rainer projects as an offensive force who will stay in the middle of the diamond and he could be a true impact talent. The White Sox need impact talent and Mike Shirley’s scouting department wouldn’t shy away from a prep hitter in this spot.
Chicago White Sox-R2 (43rd overall): Mike Sirota, outfield, Northeastern
Mike Sirota was getting mocked consistently in the top ten during the lead up to the 2024 season but he’s struggled this year for Northeastern. The 6-3, 190 pounder will turn 21-years-old in a few weeks and he bats and throws from the right side. The outfielder is lean and athletic with plus bat speed and bat-to-ball skills. Sirota has 20-20 potential has the upside to stay in center field long-term.
The Northeastern product has an above-average arm and he deploys a wide stance at the plate. In two summers on the Cape, Sirota hit .312/.465/.477 with 33 strikeouts and 27 walks. He posted a .922 OPS in 2022 and he scored 73 runs, hit 18 homers and posted a 1.149 OPS in his sophomore year during the 2023 season. In 51 games this spring, the outfielder has slashed .298/.473/.513 with a 23% walk rate and seven homers. This is the type of upside the White Sox need to gamble on when selecting college talent. Sirota will stay in center field and the wood bat success is a huge plus.
Chicago White Sox-R2 (68th overall): Peyton Stovall, second base, Arkansas
Peyton Stovall was linked to the White Sox as a Louisiana prep in advance of the 2021 draft but the infielder decided to attend Arkansas instead of beginning his professional career. The 5-11, 200 pounder projects as a second baseman and he hits from the left side. The 21-year-old missed lots of time in 2023 after tearing the labrum in his shoulder and he was shelved with a broken left foot this year for a period as well.
Love this fan not trying to do to much with the home run catch and really letting the chair do the work for him. It’s way too cold to try and bare hand a Peyton Stovall home run pic.twitter.com/pLMpdgBv3X
— Stephen Schoch (@bigdonkey47) March 26, 2024
Stovall has a beautiful left-handed swing and makes consistent hard contact to all fields. The Arkansas product’s power hasn’t improved as much as expected in college but he’s posted a .972 OPS this season over the course of 45 games with nine homers. Stovall has a fringy arm and speed but teams will take him for the ability at the plate. He’ll be a second baseman but he could move quickly through the minor leagues.
Chicago White Sox-R3 (78th overall): JD Dix, shortstop, Whitefish Bay (WI)
In this scenario, the White Sox go over slot to land the kid from Whitefish Bay, Wisconsin. Dix was a member of the White Sox’s Area Code Games team and they’re definitely familiar with his game. This is a scouting department that values midwest players as well. Dix is a 6-2, 180 pound switch-hitter. The shortstop missed most of the previous showcase circuit recovering from a torn labrum however.
SS JD Dix (Whitefish Bay, 2024; Wake Forest recruit) is looking more like his old self this spring, as he returns to full health. Came out of the offseason looking much stronger; took pre-game infield where his arm is regaining strength, more fluid than the fall. pic.twitter.com/A8uSBd8dcb
— Prep Baseball Wisconsin (@PrepBaseballWI) May 7, 2024
Dix has broad shoulders and displays a simple, disciplined stroke with an all fields approach. He’s projected for 15-20 homers in the future. MLB Pipeline compared him to New York Yankees’ infielder DJ LeMahieu in their scouting report on the Wisconsin prep. Dix is from the same school as Chicago Cubs’ manager Craig Counsell and they’re similar as prospects but Dix is a much better athlete. He has a good chance to stick at shortstop and he’s known for his leadership and work ethic. He’s committed to play at Wake Forest.
Chicago White Sox-R4 (107th overall): Jackson Kent, LHP, Arizona
Jackson Kent is a Roselle, Illinois native who excelled at multiple sports in his time at Lake Park High School; including starring at quarterback. The 21-year-old southpaw is now the Friday night starter for the Arizona Wildcats. The 6-3, 220 pounder has shown a five pitch mix featuring a low-to-mid 90’s fastball that touches 95 mph and an above-average changeup that profiles as a swing and miss offering.
Jackson Kent (@YD_RedSox | @ArizonaBaseball | '24) used his entire five pitch mix across his five inning start yesterday. FB 88-91 w/ ride, CB 72-75 and throws to both sides of the plate, good feel for CH 79-81, SL and CT blend a bit w/ CT 83-86 and SL 79-83#PGCape pic.twitter.com/yb0F0iXMJt
— PG College Baseball (@PGCollegeBall) July 17, 2023
Kent pitched in relief early in his college career but really showed some growth as a starter in the Cape Cod League last year. In 15 starts this spring, the lefty has posted a 4.08 ERA with 89 strikeouts and 27 walks in 86 innings. The White Sox frequent Arizona due to the proximity of their spring training facility and they have tracked Kent dating back to high school.
Jackson Kent (@jaxonkent22) had a pretty perfect fall:
— Arizona Baseball Analytics (@AZStatCats) October 22, 2023
8 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.38 WHIP, with 11 Strikeouts
Opponents only hit .040/.111/.040 against
Average FB Velo improved from 88.3➡️91.5 pic.twitter.com/pRrIlEO6Z8
Chicago White Sox-R5 (140th overall): Aiden May, RHP, Oregon State
The White Sox have done a solid job of late finding college pitching in this range of the draft and it could be an area to target once again in 2024. Oregon State right hander Aiden May has bounced from Pima Community College to Arizona and finally landed in a starting role for the Beavers. The 6-2, 196 pounder has been a starter with primarily two pitches.
Aiden May. 14 punchies against the Ducks. Friday Night Ace Behavior.
— 11Point7 College Baseball (@11point7) April 27, 2024
pic.twitter.com/ZqbwSeTr2p
He has shown an above-average 94-96 mph fastball with carry and a plus slider. The slider is a low 80’s power braeking ball with over 3,000 RPM of spin and May throws the pitch a ton. He has some feel for a changeup and it’ll likely need to develop further if he wants to start long-term. If he ultimately can’t start over the long haul, there’s high leverage relief upside in his profile. In 12 starts this spring, May has posted a 2.71 ERA with 70 strikeouts and 18 walks in 63 innings.
Hi James! I would be really happy with Rainer at 5. I also loved the Stovall pick. He has proved he can hit in the best conference in the country. That said, Sirota’s start in a lesser conference has me concerned. He did show well on the Cape and the tools are there. It seems that there is a glut of high end prep pitching prospects that will go in the comp and second rounds. Have you heard any connections to prep arms for the Sox there? I also like going back into the prep SS pool in the 3rd. Although this class has been knocked for a lack of impact prep talents especially up the middle, there does seem to be a bunch of preps with helium as they wrap up their spring seasons. Will you be doing a post of players that you will be watching for the college playoffs?
The White Sox have a good number pitchers coming up to the bigs. I think they should be going College bats with the first 2 picks so they move players up quickly. Gonzales is showing all the doubters how wrong they are. He may be better than Montgomery.
I do want the young upside players. Strong arm shortstop could also play 3rd and Center Field. Usually the best player on the team. Pick lots of them and move them around or trade them if shortstop is taken. They do need some power in the minors. I would look for that in the 2nd and 3rd picks. A couple of fliers after that, then go after starters could have at least 2 good pitches. At worst, they could be relievers. Even though the Sox have at least 15 good arms in the minors, they can always use more! I am hopeful that by this time next year they have a top 5 minor league system that includes depth. They didn’t have depth during the last rebuild, just high end talent that either gets hurt all the time or didn’t pan out.
You take the best player available at number 5 and the best player available will be Hagen Smith. He has the best ERA and strikeout rate per nine innings in college baseball. In 2026, the White Sox starting rotation could be:
Noah Schultz
Drew Thorpe
Cade Povich (acquired from the Orioles in a 2024 trade for Garrett Crochet)
Jairo Iriarte
Ky Bush
The gaps need to be filled with AA and AAA position players in trades at the 2024 deadline. Your most valuable assets all must go: Crochet, Robert, Fedde, Kopech, and Pham. Those assets should net the White Sox at least 11 prospects, perhaps more. With the rash of injuries in MLB coupled with the amount of teams still ‘in’ the wild card race, the White Sox are in an enviable position as sellers. A competent and creative GM could turn this team around by 2026. I don’t think Chris Getz is competent or creative. I think he is a milquetoast mid level executive who is completely out of his depth. He failed in his role in player development and was rewarded with a promotion for his failure. I digress. If we had a good GM, this train wreck could be fixed. I have very little faith that Kenny Williams’s waterboy (Getz) is the man to do it.
It’s not always as easy as taking the best player and we have no idea who the White Sox think the best player is. Bonus pool is absolutely a factor. Thanks for reading.