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2024 MLB Draft Profile: Chase Burns (RHP)

By / / 2024 MLB Draft, Minors

NAME: Chase Burns
SCHOOL: Wake Forest University
POSITION: Starting Pitcher
HEIGHT/WEIGHT: 6-4/195 pounds
B/T: R/R
D.O.B.: 1/16/2003
PREVIOUSLY DRAFTED: San Diego Padres, 20th round, 2021

Scouting Report

Chase Burns was drafted in the final round of the 2021 MLB Draft, and didn’t sign with the San Diego Padres. An easy decision to go to school, and it paid off big time. Three years later, and Burns is a potential top five pick, almost a lock in the top ten. Dating back to his prep days, he’s always thrown hard. He touched 100 mph on his fastball before he stepped foot on campus at the University of Tennessee, where he spent his freshman and sophomore years.

Perfect Game ranked him as the best player in the state of Tennessee in 2021, and the 17th best player nationally, which was 5th among pitchers. When he got to Tennessee, he threw 80.1 innings as a true freshman in the Volunteers rotation, and carried a 2.91 ERA throughout them. He struck out 103 of his 330 batters faced, good for an 11.5 K/9. The next year, Burns shifted into more of a relief role, and threw only 72.0 IP. While his strikeout number went up to 114, his ERA went with it, to a 4.25. Following that year, one of the most prized portal acquisitions transferred to Wake Forest University.

Wake Forest has been known to be a big league pitching lab operating at the college level, and they worked their magic on Burns. This year, Burns threw an even 100.0 IP of 2.70 ERA baseball, and struck out 191 batters. An unfathomable 17.2 K/9. Rightfully so, Burns won ACC Pitcher of the Year honors, after leading the conference in multiple stats.

Armed with some of the best pure stuff in the draft, Burns has a hellacious fastball-slider mix, and a changeup and curveball that he added at Wake Forest. The fastball is consistently upper 90s, even reaching triple digits at times, with some outrageous carry to it. The slider is a beauty. It’s a high 80’s two plane breaker that plays perfectly off the heater. The curveball shows flashes of being a true hammer, but it’s not as consistent as you’d like.

He’s explored a changeup around 90 mph, and when it’s on, it’s a fantastic pitch. He’s able to throw it for strikes, and keep hitters way behind the fastball. If the curveball and changeup develop into true offeringsthat can be thrown in any count, it’s one of the most impressive arsenals we’ve seen in quite some time.Burns is ranked inside the top 10 on most boards. MLB Pipeline slots him in at 5th, the highest of all pitchers, and gives his slider a 70 grade on the 20-80 scale. It’s tied for the highest graded slider in the draft with Iowa fireballer Brody Brecht also earning the honors. All of his other pitches are at least average, with the fastball getting the next highest grade, a 65.

Baseball America’s list has him one spot lower, at 6th, and this time he no longer is the top arm in the class. That crown went to Hagen Smith, who they have third. The reason for this is there is a higher chance of reliever risk with Burns, but on the other hand, there’s top of the rotation upside. No matter what board you look at, they’ll all say the same things: Incredible stuff, but a history of throwing strikes a bit less than what you’d want in a lottery pick.

But Burns turned the tides this year, posting a whiff rate near 50% on all of his pitches. While that won’t hold up long term, it is a very encouraging sight to see. If he can continue to miss bats, he can afford to be a little on the wild side and still be effective. It’s also not as if Burns is walking the whole country, either. In his 16 starts in 2024, he walked three or more batters only four times. Two of those outings occurred early in the season, when the temperatures in Winston-Salem, North Carolina were in the mid 40’s. Burns then went on a 12 start stretch that saw him walk more than two batters in an outing only once. A promising step in the right direction.

Why Would The White Sox Draft Chase Burns?

When it comes to electricity on the mound, Chase Burns might as well be coated in copper. Your hair stands on end just watching him. When he gets a big strikeout, he’s not afraid to let you know how hyped he is. If you were in his shoes, could you really blame him? Just overpowering hitters with his lethal fastball-slider combo.

While there has been a recent influx in quality starting pitching in the White Sox’s system, there is a need for upside. Chase Burns can slot into that role perfectly, and be perhaps the best pitching prospect in the system, even above the likes of Noah Schultz. He’s got all the characteristics of an ace, even down to the way he carries himself on the field. When he steps between the white lines, all he cares about is putting his team in the best position to win a baseball game.

While Mike Shirley has often grabbed high upside college arms in the later rounds, like Grant Taylor in 2023, Burns might force Shirley to think. It’s not every day you see a pitcher with as much upside as Burns available, so there’s a real conversation to be made for him to be the pick.

Draft
Mike Shirley via White Sox Zoom

The money is where it gets tricky to predict. I’m sure every team inside the top 10 has talked about drafting him, and how much they’d give him. Could he go under slot to the Reds or Rockies at pick two or three? Absolutely. Could he also fall to seven and have the Cardinals go over slot to get him? Absolutely. Just all depends on how the board shakes out.

Mock Drafts

FutureSox’s own James Fox slotted Burns in at third overall to the Colorado Rockies in his Mock Draft 2.0 and that seems to be an industry trend. Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline slotted the righty to Colorado in his latest projection and Kiley McDaniel at ESPN did the same thing. Carlos Collazo of Baseball America projected the Wake Forest right hander to the Rockies as well with the third overall selection. In Jonathan Mayo’s most recent attempt at MLB Pipeline, he mocked Burns to the Cincinnati Reds with the #2 overall pick while Keith Law of The Athletic projected the hurler to the Kansas City Royals at #6 overall.

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