By slashing .310/.386/.647 with a high-performance ISO of .357 and a wRC+ of 150 in 220 plate appearances for Charlotte in 2019, 26-year-old backstop Yermin Mercedes put himself on the map with White Sox fans. This winter, the team added him to the 40-man roster, further fueling excitement within the fan base.
A Breakdown of Offensive Statistics
Offseason acquisitions at the big league level have made the landscape at catcher and DH difficult to navigate. The perception is that Mercedes’s defensive liabilities have slowed his track to the majors. While his defense is a concern, a more in-depth look at the numbers indicates there are additional reasons that Mercedes’s quest to become a big leaguer could stall.
There is no question Mercedes can hit. In a minor league career that began in 2011 in the Nationals system, Mercedes has never posted a wRC+ below 100. He’s an on-base machine (career OBP .366) with solid contact rates resulting in high run production.
It is fair, though, to remain on the fence as it pertains to his offensive consistency. Aside from last year’s outlier in Charlotte, where he posted an ISO of .337, Mercedes has never exceeded the threshold of .200 (.140 is considered MLB average).
Looking at a more visible metric, Mercedes’ 17 home runs in 220 plate appearances in Charlotte in 2019 is also a statistical aberration. His previous career-high was 15 in 378 PA in High-A in 2017 as a Baltimore farmhand. He also hit 14 in 410 PA at the same level with the White Sox in 2018.
Conditions in Charlotte
With the way BB&T Ballpark in Charlotte played last year, it’s difficult to discern if Mercedes has turned a corner to become a bonafide power hitter or is still more like a 4-cylinder model. His home/away splits lend further credence to the theory that his power surge has more to do with the ballpark than a shift in his skill-set.
Location didn’t have much impact on his home run output, as Mercedes hit nine in Charlotte and eight on the road. However, other metrics show a different view. At the Triple-A level, he slashed .356/.406/.711 with an OPS of 1.117 at home, contrasted with .268/.370/.588 with an OPS of .957 while on the road.
Road to the Majors
If Mercedes is to make the big leagues as a DH, he’ll need to hit for extra bases consistently. His overall career numbers indicate he’s got more Nick Madrigal in him than say Eloy Jimenez. With competition from players like Edwin Encarnación, Zack Collins, Andrew Vaughn, among others, it’ll be much tougher earn a spot on the White Sox MLB roster.
The conversation would change if Mercedes can shore up his defense. Rick Hahn has said publicly that his defense behind the plate is better than perceived. He’s also capable of playing first and third. With the roster expanded to 26 players, it’s possible there may be room for a run creation engine as a utility type at those positions.
At 26 and having spent nine years in the minor leagues, the clock is ticking on Mercedes’ warranty. Proving he’s a true power hitter and/or improving defensively in 2020 will indicate whether the White Sox are willing to give him the keys to a locker in Chicago this season.
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