Here at FutureSox, we recently released our 2nd version of a mock draft in advance of the festivities on June 10-11. With only five picks in the 2020 draft, I’ve decided to predict all five rounds for the Chicago White Sox.
The White Sox have $7,764,800 to spend on five players. They can also spend 5% over that bonus amount for a total of $8,153,040. The club would be required to pay a 75% overage tax on the amount but I’m budgeting for it due to their recent proclivity during the proceedings. Ownership has given the green light in regards to excess draft spending in recent years and they should do so again in 2020.
In recent years, the White Sox have spent the full bonus slot in round one and have gone over in round two as well. In 2019, the club went significantly over-slot to sign right-handed prep pitcher Andrew Dalquist for $2 million in round three as well. In order to do so, the club spent $60K total on 6 seniors drafted in rounds 6-10. They won’t be able to use a similar strategy with the rule changes in place this year however.
The organization also prioritized some intriguing talent on the draft’s third day of late by saving some money to use in rounds 11-40. With a five round draft, saving money for day three to prioritize some area scout favorites just isn’t possible. It’s just another talent source gone by the wayside under this temporary format. When I asked about strategical changes, one source said that teams should try and prioritize signing the best five players possible in the shortened draft. Another thought process would be to save money in the first round under this modified format and disperse funds throughout day two.
One of the most interesting factors in this year’s draft will be charting the strategical implications that teams decide to use. The New York Yankees have just three picks in June. On the other end of the spectrum, the St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants will choose seven players each. The White Sox have selections in each of the five rounds and these are the bonus amounts for those particular picks.
1st Round: 11. $4,547,500
2nd Round: 47. $1,580,200
3rd Round: 83. $733,100
4th Round: 112. $517,400
5th Round: 142. $386,600
1st Round: #11 Overall- Jared Kelley RHP Refugio HS (TX) ($4 million)
Jared Kelley is a 6’3″ 215 pound right hander from the state of Texas. The 18-year-old was stellar during the Area Code Games last year and he was very good during his brief high school season this year as well. Kelley’s 65-grade fastball sits in the 93-96 mph range and has touched 99 frequently. While he sports lots of velocity, there is little effort in the delivery. The Texas prep’s fastball also shows running action. Along with the fastball, Kelley also displays a 60-grade changeup that is very advanced for a high school prospect. His third pitch is a hard slurve that was improved during his outings this spring.
The stuff is premium but Kelley’s calling card is his advanced feel on the mound. He really knows how to pitch and has the look of a frontline starter. The righty possesses a strong, durable and mature frame with a loose, fluid delivery. Some scouts predict “future plus command” according to Baseball America. He faces the stigma that all players of this profile face. Prep righties are the toughest demographic to scout and the hit rate in the first round is tough to justify. Kelley has top-of-the-rotation upside but the argument can be made that it’s just not a risk worth taking in most cases.
The Chicago White Sox will be more prep focused under new Scouting Director Mike Shirley but it won’t necessarily be this year. The club does have some level of interest in Jared Kelley however. Area scouts for the club frequented Texas and were at many of his starts for Refugio High School. Kelley has also met with the White Sox on private zoom sessions in recent weeks according to a source. Jared Kelley would immediately become one of the organization’s top prospects but the franchise hasn’t drafted a prep pitcher in the first round since taking Kris Honel in 2001.
Some Footage from the UA All-America Game last summer courtesy of 2080 Baseball.
2nd Round: #47 overall- Jared Shuster LHP Wake Forest ($2 million)
Jared Shuster is a 21-year-old southpaw that posted a 6.79 ERA in his first two seasons with the Demon Deacons. This 6’3″ 210 pound lefty showed great improvement in wood bat leagues while playing in the Cape Cod League last summer however. Shuster improved his command and control immensely. He was pretty good when college play started as well. Shuster’s 55-grade fastball ticked up and he threw it in the 93-96 range consistently. He made noticeable changes to his style by scrapping a sinking two-seamer in favor of a riding four-seamer with life. His best pitch is a 60-grade changeup that he can throw in any count though. He needs to work on the third pitch but he displays a developing slider that could be at least average in the future.
The delivery is a bit questionable but he’s strong with a solid frame. Shuster only averaged 1.4 BB/9 at Wake Forest this year which was a far cry from walking five guys in the same span previously. The left-hander displays impressive starter traits and has been a late bloomer. Shuster posted a 3.76 ERA in 26.1 innings this spring while striking out 43. The truncated season improved his draft stock considerably but he may have moved up even higher if the season had continued. Gavin Sheets was a 2nd rounder of the club in 2017 and Wake Forest’s close proximity to the Winston-Salem Dash leaves the organization with a familiarity to the program. The White Sox are also rumored to be interested in adding a college southpaw in this draft.
Footage of Jared Shuster on the Cape courtesy of Prospects Live
3rd Round: #83 overall- Chase Davis OF Franklin High School (CA) ($1.2 million)
Chase Davis could end up going higher than this after stellar showcase performances last summer and in Jupiter. The 18-year-old L/L outfielder is committed to Arizona but will likely be the highest drafted player ever out of Franklin High School in Elk Grove, California. Nick Madrigal and Dylan Carlson are other notable big leaguers that have hailed from the area in recent years according to MLB Pipeline. Davis is a strong, athletic outfielder with raw power and very quick hands and bat speed. While he excelled versus top talent last summer, there are some timing issues with his swing.
Davis struggles to recognize breaking balls at times and his swing can get a little long. The bat will be his carrying tool though with plus power and possibly even plus bat speed. Chase is a “gym rat” type and has the body to match according to Baseball America. He’s a potential fit in right field with a 70-grade throwing arm and a 6’1″ 210 pound frame that can be added to. The White Sox haven’t been linked to Chase Davis but Mike Shirley and his staff will be looking to add more prep talents in general and nabbing a high school position player of some sort in round three seems like sound strategy.
Chase Davis from the 2019 PG National from ProspectsLive
4th Round: #112 overall- Anthony Servideo SS Mississippi ($500K)
Anthony Servideo is one of the best defensive shortstops in the 2020 class. The 5″10″ 170 pounder had to wait until Grae Kessinger (2nd round pick of Houston in 2019) was off campus until finally playing his natural position though. The 21-year-old left-handed hitter had a dreadful offensive experience in the Cape Cod League last summer with wood bats. He bounced back in a big way this spring though in a limited sample. In about 60 at-bats, Servideo hit .390/.575/.695 with 5 homers and walked 24 times in 17 games. The infielder needs to cut down on his swing and make more consistent contact but he displays plus speed and he’s an aggressive baserunner. There are some questions about whether the success would have continued in SEC play but we’ll never know at this point. Servideo possesses a solid arm and he’s a plus defender overall. He should be a capable utility option regardless of the bat potentially improving.
Some Highlights of Servideo’s College Season
Round 5: #142 overall- Shane Drohan LHP Florida State ($350K)
Shane Drohan is a 21-year-old southpaw with a three-pitch mix and he was a fixture in the Florida State rotation this spring. The 6’3″ 195 pounder was a very good high school quarterback before committing to baseball full time in college. The southpaw is still raw and there’s plenty of room to grow into something more. His fastball sits in the 92-93 mph range and has hit 95 on occasion. Drohan shows loose and easy arm action and there’s some deception in his delivery. He also has the makings of an above-average curveball that shows some three-quarter break. There’s a developing changeup in his arsenal as well. The Seminole displays an athletic delivery but he also has some issues repeating his delivery. Drohan can return to school and become a junior all over again but he’d be a 22-year-old in next year’s class and could opt to sign this year instead.
Footage of Shane Drohan courtesy of Perfect Game
Photo credit: Clinton Cole/FutureSox
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Because of the limited five round 2020 draft I believe the White Sox will prioritize college players who have a more proven track record against better talent and less leverage than a prep star who can always fall back on his scholarship commitment to a university. A college player would also advance more quickly to the big leagues and might be a better strategy with the limited number of picks in this year’s draft. According to most mock drafts I have seen, the White Sox will have their pick of toolsy lefty hitting UCLA CF Garrett Mitchell and top rated college switch-hitting C Patrick Bailey.
If the White Sox do aim for a high school talent it would more likely occur early in the draft when they can approach their full bonus allotments to dissuade a prep player from their college commitment. The two high school players who stand out and could be available to the White Sox with their #11 pick are prep pitcher Jared Kelley who is the pick in this mock draft along with toolsy local prep SS Ed Howard.
Mitchell seems to have the highest floor and ceiling with across the board tools that include a 70 run and 60 hit/arm grades on the 20/80 scale. He is also the highest rated of the four prospects according to MLB.com’s top-200 class and only lost draft stock due to his Type 1 diabetes. He has decent size and does project as an MLB CF with great athleticism. His appeal to the White Sox would also be his left-handed bat.
Bailey is the top rated C in the draft, a college player who has similar hit tools to Zack Collins but with better defensive skills. His offense is his biggest question mark but because of his defense his floor is that of a legit MLB backup catcher. If he can hit enough he projects as a solid starter behind the dish.
Howard is the highest rated SS in the draft and one of the top high school position players. His offensive tools suggest Tim Anderson with better defensive skills and a high baseball IQ. He’s also a product of Mount Carmel High School and a former member of the White Sox ACE program. As a prep player he is expected to mature physically which should increase his power potential but is still expected to remain a SS in MLB.
It’s been said about Kelley that he should be MLB ready by the time he’s 21 so about 3 years. Thats the same time as Lopez, Giolito, Kopech either hit free agency or are about to free agency as well as Keuchel getting to the end of his contract. That’s a lot of holes to fill, and getting guys in the system to potentially be long term options for the sox to naturally reload the staff should be priority #1. I know you don’t usually draft for need in the MLB draft but Kelley checks all the boxes talent wise and makes too much sense.
My biggest concern with Jared Kelley is one shared by many scouts, a right-handed prep power pitcher who’s second best pitch is a changeup. I’d feel a little better about Kelley if his #2 pitch was a breaking ball.
Kelley does have command in his favor, something that could also be said about Chris Sale who’s top two pitches entering the 2010 draft were also his fastball and changeup. Of course, Sale had more experience coming out of Florida Gulf Coast University after also starring as a high school pitcher in Lakeland, Florida. Sale also dominated as a left-handed pitcher which is generally a tougher road to travel in the prep and college ranks.
Speaking of college southpaws, I’ve also seen a mock draft that had Louisville’s Reid Detmers dropping to the White Sox at #11. Detmers is the most polished lefty in this year’s draft and is generally expected to go in the top-10. Before going to Louisville, Detmers was one of Illinois top high school pitching prospects in 2017 and was drafted in the later rounds by the Braves. He upped his game significantly in college and is now poised to be a certain first round pick.