Risk outweighs reward for Michael Kopech in abbreviated 2020 season

Michael Kopech is the first player on the Chicago White Sox to voluntarily sit out of the 2020 Major League Baseball season. Rick Hahn issued a statement on Friday and paired it with the news that third baseman Yoan Moncada and right-hander Jose Ruiz were placed on the 10-day injured list.

His decision presumptively derives from COVID-19 related risks, although Kopech has yet to make an official statement. It was announced on July 3 that the right-hander had not reported to camp due to personal reasons, but White Sox general manager Rick Hahn made it a point to note Kopech is healthy. That said, it is unclear when he will return with the team.

‘‘I do not have a timeline for his return,” Hahn said in a Zoom call Friday. “Given the personal nature of the matter he’s tending to, I won’t provide updates until we know the actual plan for Michael going forward. It’s never ideal when any individual is dealing with off-field matters. It’s easy to lose sight of the fact you’re dealing with human beings who have lives, families and the same assortment of items to attend to that people have. This is obviously a very unique time we’re all living through.”

Jim Adduci doubled with one out in the fourth inning on September 5, 2018, which marked the last pitch thrown by Kopech in the Majors. Two days later, the White Sox announced he likely needed Tommy John surgery and ultimately received the operation on September 18.

After missing all of 2019, Kopech made his return in a cactus league matchup on March 10, 2020 and threw a scoreless inning on 11 pitches. Two days later, Major League Baseball suspended spring training, resulting in just over three months of painstaking negotiations in an attempt to restart the year.

Michael Kopech’s pre-start bullpen on March 10, 2020

From a pure baseball perspective, Kopech appeared ready to contribute in a regulated capacity in 2020 considering the positive trends surrounding his rehab. However, without the benefit of a full 162-game schedule and Minor League Baseball season, the White Sox would need to be diligent in Kopech’s load management.

There are risks involved physically when it comes to Kopech’s participation in what is scheduled to be a 60-game regular season over 66 days. The conditions preclude the righty from returning to game shape at his and the organization’s preferred pace.

Staying in shape independently as well as working off a mound in a controlled setting is different than handling the taxing routine required to operate as a pitcher across a Major League season; not to mention this one. Kopech is putting himself and the organization in a better position by not forcing a return in a condensed timeline, despite the obvious upside he could provide immediately.

Outside of strictly the competitive side of this decision, citing concerns over COVID-19 related risks is reason enough for any athlete of any sport to sit out of their respective seasons.

WHAT IT MEANS MOVING FORWARD

The repercussions of Kopech’s resolution influences his contract status. First, it is important to differentiate whether or not the player is considered high-risk for the coronavirus. Those who are regarded as high-risk and opt-out of playing in 2020 will receive their full pro-rated salary along with service time added for the season. Kopech currently has accumulated 1.041 years of service in the big leagues after spending the 2019 campaign on the major league roster.

In Kopech’s case, James Fegan of The Athletic indicated ($) through sources that, “Kopech has not been deemed a high-risk individual for the COVID-19 pandemic and will thus not receive salary nor accrue service time for the 2020 season.”

As a result, Kopech’s salary owed this year will be pushed to 2021, which will represent his second pre-arbitration year. Service time will not be accumulated. He is under team control through the 2025 season.

For the purposes of what we do here at FutureSox, Kopech will remain a prospect until he throws 50 big league innings. Expect several publications to follow a similar model, resulting in the 25-year-old to be among the top-100 prospects in baseball for the sixth consecutive year. So, that’s neat.

Photo credit: Clinton Cole/FutureSox

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