40-Man roster decisions and 2020 Rule 5 Draft implications

A 2020 season was played, a champion was crowned and the White Sox returned to the postseason after a decade long absence. Qualifying offers have been accepted or declined across the league, and free agents have officially filed for impending work. This is an important offseason for the Chicago White Sox, and while roster trimming isn’t as significant as last year, moves have been made.

The White Sox roster stands at 36 after Jimmy Lambert and Michael Kopech were added from the 60-day injured list and the restricted list, respectively. Infielder Yolmer Sanchez was claimed off waivers by the Baltimore Orioles while the organization attempted to outright him off of the current roster. In addition to those changes, Gio Gonzalez (LHP), Edwin Encarnacion (DH), Alex Colome (RHP), James McCann (C) and Jarrod Dyson (OF) officially elected for free agency.

The Rule 5 Draft generally happens on the final day of Major League Baseball’s annual winter meetings. But in our quarantined world, the winter meetings won’t be a public event this year. The festivities, which were slated to take place in Dallas, Texas, will now be held virtually. The meetings will still take place from December 7-10, but the environment will obviously be much different. The Rule 5 Draft is expected to occur on Thursday, Dec. 10 via teleconference to close out the virtual affair.

In the big league phase of the draft, any player who isn’t on a club’s 40-man roster and is also approaching his fourth or fifth season in an organization can be selected by another club for $100,000 paid to the holding club. Players signed at the age of 18 or younger have five years in an organization before becoming eligible. Players who are signed at the age of 19 or older have four years with their respective clubs. There is also a minor league phase where unprotected players not on a minor league reserve roster can be selected under the same service time restrictions. Unlike the rule in which drafted players must be kept on a big league roster or returned for $50,000, the minor league phase has no such requirement.

The White Sox chose not to make a Rule 5 pick in 2019 and will be in the 23rd position this year. The 40-man roster for the Rule 5 Draft must be finalized by Friday, Nov. 20. In past years, the White Sox had some difficult decisions to make. This remains true, but with contention being the primary focus of the big league club, maneuvering should be somewhat manageable.

Current Roster

Here is a look at the current 40-man roster for the Pale Hose, which sits at 36 players. The roster includes 19 pitchers, four catchers, five infielders and eight outfielders. We can’t predict future trades or transactions that may occur, so we’re working from the current organizational depth chart. The following players require protection or are already on the 40-man roster but aren’t necessarily 26-man roster players at this point in time.

Micker Adolfo (OF)

Zack Burdi (RHP)

Zack Collins (C)

Garrett Crochet (LHP)

Dane Dunning (RHP)

Bernardo Flores Jr. (LHP)

Luis Gonzalez (OF)

Michael Kopech (RHP)

Jimmy Lambert (RHP)

Reynaldo Lopez (RHP)

Nick Madrigal (2B)

Danny Mendick (INF)

Yermin Mercedes (C)

Jose Ruiz (RHP)

Blake Rutherford (RHP)

Jonathan Stiever (RHP)

Seby Zavala (C)

While some roster gymnastics should occur, it’s not completely necessary until more transactions are consummated. There are some players on the bubble, but not as many as in recent seasons. Veterans Carlos Rodon and Nomar Mazara are expected to be non-tendered, which would also open up two spots on the 40-man roster. Reynaldo Lopez’s roster spot doesn’t seem completely safe either after the 26-year-old right-hander struggled in 2020 and is out of minor league options.

Jose Ruiz is another pitcher who resides firmly on the roster bubble. The rest of the young pitchers on the roster should be safe throughout the offseason barring some sort of trade. On the position player side, some roster spots could be tenuous. 24-year-old outfielder Micker Adolfo has battled injuries throughout his minor league career, but this could be his final winter as a member of the organization. There is a question about the Dominican’s option status for the upcoming season, as well. He may be completely out of options, but either way, the player might be tough to carry on the 40-man unless he rallies to make the club out of spring training.

As a former first-round draft pick, Zack Collins is safe for now and could be the leading candidate for the backup catcher position in 2021. The organization does have a pair of 27-year-old backstops on the roster in addition to the former 10th-overall pick out of Miami. Seby Zavala and Yermin Mercedes both participated at the alternate site in Schaumburg this past season and were slated to play in Triple-A with the Charlotte Knights. Both players could be back in Triple-A for the 2021 season, but should receive big league invites to spring training if they are still in the organization. These are two names to watch going forward.

Those Not Yet on The Roster

There are also numerous players not currently on the 40-man roster that present some risk of being taken in December’s draft if not protected. If another team takes a player in the Rule 5, they must keep the player on their active roster for the entirety of the season or return the player to his original club for $50,000 – something to keep in mind when evaluating claim risk. I will split these players into two categories.

Risk of Being Claimed

• Jake Burger (3B)
• Tyler Johnson (RHP)
• Will Kincanon (RHP)
• Gavin Sheets (1B)

Burger, Sheets, Kincanon and Johnson were all drafted in 2017 and each pose the biggest risk of being plucked by another organization in the Rule 5 Draft. Burger was selected in the first round of the 2017 draft out of Missouri State. The 24-year-old third baseman has had a rough go of it so far in professional baseball. The 6-foot-2, 210-pound infielder missed the 2018 and 2019 seasons after two ruptures of his left Achilles’ tendon and a strenuous rehab process with setbacks along the way. Burger was drafted for his strength, solid bat speed and plus raw power. While Jake was drafted for his bat, he always displayed adequate defensive athleticism to possibly stick at third base. He also has soft hands, solid arm strength and decent range.

Burger made it back in 2020 and would have been ready to join a minor league affiliate had there been a season. The former first-rounder ultimately joined other White Sox prospects at the alternate site in Schaumburg after participating in the CarShield Collegiate League in his home state of Missouri. Burger looked healthy at the alternate site, and our editor in chief, Mike Rankin, detailed his rebirth back in August. The player told the media that he lost 25 pounds, feels good and is open to playing other positions to reach the big leagues. It’s not for certain that the organization will decide to protect Jake Burger prior to the November 20 deadline. There’s a chance that another club will select Burger. But if he’s left unprotected, it’s likely because the front office is very confident that he’ll remain a member of the organization.

Sheets was the selection in the second round of the 2017 draft out of Wake Forest and is another player who requires 40-man roster protection. Sheets made light of a difficult situation in 2020. He wasn’t invited to the alternate site, and the slugger spoke to FutureSox back in September about the developing situation. The 6-foot-4, 230-pound first baseman was the highest ranked prospect in the system to not receive an invite to Schaumburg. While away from the organization and keeping busy on his own regiment, Sheets made some swing alterations, changed his body in a significant way and worked on putting himself in position to play the outfield. Gavin took live batting practice regularly and thinks the time away might turn into a blessing down the road.

Sheets was expected to spend the 2020 season in the hitter friendly International League with the Charlotte Knights. One of the criticisms of his game was that he didn’t produce enough power in games despite plus raw power in his repertoire. The former second-rounder struggled initially in Birmingham, but ended the year hitting .267/.345/.414 and posted a 122 wRC+. He hit 16 homers, walked at a 10% clip and led the Southern League in runs batted in. The first baseman walks a lot, doesn’t strike out often and possesses significant raw power. First base is a bit of a log jam in Chicago, but the former top-50 pick has a high likelihood of being snatched in the Rule 5 Draft if left unprotected. Nothing is in stone, but it would be a surprise if the White Sox didn’t feel similarly and act accordingly.

Johnson spent the summer in Schaumburg at the alternate site, and there was some chatter that he could potentially make his big league debut. The former fifth-rounder likely would have pitched at Charlotte had there been a season in 2020. The 25-year-old threw 10 innings in High-A Winston Salem with the Dash in 2019 and averaged 13.5 K/9. He posted a 1.80 ERA with a 2.03 xFIP. That performance earned Johnson a promotion to Double-A Birmingham, where he was effective to close out the year. The former South Carolina closer posted a 3.44 ERA with a 2.64 xFIP while averaging 11.29 K/9 and 2.95 BB/9. Johnson was roughed up a bit in big league spring training, struggling with his secondary offerings and command.

His stuff improved in Schaumburg and organizational pitching coaches were impressed with Johnson’s repertoire. Tyler throws a four-seam fastball in the 92-96 mph range and touches 98. The pitch doesn’t have a ton of life but creates plane effectively. His secondaries are unreliable, and he’ll need to display a more effective low-80s slider while continuing to develop his changeup. There is some stab and wrist wrap in Johnson’s unconventional delivery, and while some scouts were turned off by it, the White Sox have never had an issue. Johnson posted a 2.27 ERA in his first three pro seasons with 169 strikeouts in 115 innings while holding opponents to an average of .197. He’s definitely a candidate to be selected in the Rule 5 Draft if Chicago leaves him unprotected.

The White Sox selected Kincanon in the 11th round of the 2017 draft out of Indiana State. The 6-foot-3, 205-pound right-hander was slated to pitch in Birmingham this year, but worked out on his own with a plan given by the organization instead. Kincanon threw 58 innings in Winston-Salem in 2019 and posted a 1.86 ERA with 71 strikeouts. He pitched at Low-A Kannapolis in 2018 and posted a 3.63 ERA while averaging 10.9 K/9 in 34.2 innings. After starting for the Sycamores, the Sox transitioned Kincanon to relief immediately, and he posted a 3.94 ERA in rookie ball in 2017.

The righty posted an ERA over five in college as a starter, but the White Sox were impressed by the three-plus pitches that were consistently on display. Will was given an over-slot bonus of $150K in round 11 and signed a professional contract. While Kincanon struggled as a starter, the transition to relief has worked out for him. He has a four-pitch mix and relies on his fastball and slider. The fastball is a 92-95 mph heavy sinker, and he induces lots of weak contact and a plethora of ground balls. The slider sits in the mid-80s and is a swing-and-miss offering. He also throws a curveball and changeup. Kincanon uses a three-quarters crossfire delivery that is very tough on righties, but he’s been solid against lefties as well. The 25-year-old shows inconsistent control and command at times and gets hit hard when he does. Similarly to Matt Foster last winter, Kincanon could be protected next week in a bit of a surprise.

Low Risk of Claim

• Vince Arobio (RHP)
• Joel Booker (OF)
• Ryan Burr (RHP)
• Anderson Comas (OF)
• Craig Dedelow (OF)
• Ti’Quan Forbes (3B)
• Alec Hansen (RHP)
• Lincoln Henzman (RHP)
• Kade McClure (RHP)
• Kodi Medeiros (LHP)
• Luis Mieses (OF)
• Nate Nolan (C)
• Felix Paulino (RHP)
• Zach Remillard (3B)
• Laz Rivera (SS)
• Mitch Roman (2B)
• Evan Skoug (C)
• Lenyn Sosa (SS)
• Corey Zangari (1B)

Likely Outcomes

For the fourth consecutive year, the White Sox have more than a handful of notable prospects eligible for the Rule 5 Draft. Last year, the organization protected seven players. Zack Burdi, Dane Dunning, Bernardo Flores Jr., Matt Foster, Jimmy Lambert, Yermin Mercedes and Blake Rutherford were all added to the roster in advance of last year’s draft. The organization has procured lots of talent, but protecting all of those players can become an issue. There are no locks to be protected this year.

Jake Burger, Gavin Sheets, Tyler Johnson and Will Kincanon are the most likely to stick around. Lenyn Sosa, Anderson Comas and Luis Mieses are all interesting and possess upside but don’t have any real risk at being selected. If the White Sox leave player unprotected, it’s likely that they have information indicating that said player will ultimately be safe. The White Sox haven’t selected a player in the Rule 5 Draft since taking Dylan Covey back in 2016. The club will pick 23rd and it’s possible they find a bullpen arm that could stick. They could also just trade the pick to the Texas Rangers or pass altogether, which has been the modus operandi of late. In order to make a selection, they’ll need to leave a spot open on the roster by the November 20 deadline.

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