The White Sox need outfield help. A quick glance at the club’s 40-man roster shows an incomplete picture with a chest of misfit toys and while there are humans listed as outfielders, they seem to be mere placeholders at this stage. The club decided to non-tender 30-year-old outfielder Adam Engel last week ending his run with the team after a fairly successful stint under the circumstances.
Engel was drafted in the 19th round out of Louisville way back in 2013, and while he struggled in many areas in 2022, the defensive standout did provide just over 5 fWAR for the White Sox in portions of six major league seasons. His career should be a seen as a scouting and development accomplishment for the organization. The 30-year-old local product Mark Payton wasn’t provided with a contract for 2023 either and the outfielder will become a free agent after launching 25 homers with the Charlotte Knights last year prior to an eight-game big league sample.
Previously, 34-year-old outfielder A.J. Pollock decided to decline his player option to become a free agent as well. In line to collect $13 million for the 2023 season, the veteran accepted a $5 million buyout instead and will look to find work elsewhere for next season. Expected to answer the bell against righties and lefties in 2022 for a contending club, Pollock instead trudged his way to a 92 wRC+ with 14 homers over the course of 138 games.
Current Roster Fits
Luis Robert is the only true outfielder on the Pale Hose roster right now. Andrew Vaughn, Gavin Sheets and Eloy Jiménez have moonlighted in both corners but early indications are that the club isn’t planning to deploy this triumvirate out of position any longer. The oft-injured Jiménez settled in as the designated hitter more frequently to close out last season after some initial apprehension.
Sheets has shown an ability to hit righties at times and Vaughn will take over as the primary first baseman, following in the footsteps of José Abreu after his nine-year run with the team. The former third-overall pick out of California might be the worst defensive outfielder in the sport and Rick Hahn stated similarly, albeit much more diplomatically.
“Vaughn is a first baseman. That’s how he was drafted,” Hahn said of the 24-year-old slugger. “Does it mean he’s going to be our first baseman next year? Not necessarily. He wasn’t either of the past two seasons. But in the end, his best defensive position is first base and perhaps ultimately when the time comes and he settles into that position, you are asking a lot less of him and perhaps that even increases his offensive production as a result.”
The franchise is banking on Vaughn becoming a cornerstone offensive piece and a move back to his original position should be a step in the right direction. The 24-year-old hit .271/.321/.429 with 17 homers and a 113 wRC+ in 134 games. He battled lower body ailments for the majority of the season and keeping his legs fresh seems to be a priority for the front office in 2023.
There aren’t many internal options to save the 2023 White Sox, but Cuban slugger Oscar Colás looks like one of the favorites for an outfield corner. The 24-year-old clubbed 23 homers and played 117 games for three minor league affiliates. The 6-foot-1-inch, 210-pounder really took off in Double-A when he hit .306/.364/.563 with a 139 wRC+ in 225 plate appearances. Colás started the season posting a 129 wRC+ with the Dash in High-A and finished on a seven-game tear in Charlotte, where he slashed .387/.424/.645.
Colás needs to walk more and cut down on the strikeouts, but he performed well against left-handed pitching and handled center field, indicating that above-average defense in an outfield corner is possible. With three holes on the outfield depth chart, filling one internally with a potential long-term answer would be a boon for the organization.
Hahn said that the franchise wouldn’t be opposed to the Cuban outfielder contributing from the outset in 2023. “I don’t think Opening Day is necessarily too much of an ask,” said Hahn at baseball’s general managers meetings earlier this month. “We’ll head to camp and see where we’re at. Obviously, there will be offseason check-ins as well and see where the progress is at. But he impressed us last year and is on a real good trajectory to contribute in a meaningful way as soon as next year.”
External Options
Lineup flexibility has been sought for years but acquiring that balance has seemed like lip service from the front office. The White Sox have deployed a roster heavily reliant on righties for too long and with recent departures, balance can finally be achieved. It won’t be easy due to budget constraints evidently imposed by ownership and a thin minor league system to trade from but multiple outfielders will be added to the club this off-season.
There are myriad options that make sense available on the free agent market. 31-year-old Aaron Judge is the prize of the free agent class but he won’t be switching pinstripes any time soon. 30-year-old center fielder Brandon Nimmo likely leaves New York this off-season but his projected price tag exceeds the spending proclivities of the White Sox. Michael Conforto, Joey Gallo and Cody Bellinger offer power and patience from the left side and could be more in range.
Andrew Benintendi, Michael Brantley, Kole Calhoun, Robbie Grossman, David Peralta, Jurickson Profar and Kevin Kiermaier could be options as well and all are free to sign at any point. Jesse Winker of the Seattle Mariners and Anthony Santander of the Baltimore Orioles are reportedly available via trade as well as a host of 40-man roster players for the Arizona Diamondbacks too.
What’s the plan?
The White Sox should throw money at the problem. The front office built a core of players and built in their own cost certainty but it’s time to enhance the roster with outside additions. Rick Hahn has stated that the trade market would be more plentiful for his team than the open market would be but the rhetoric just rings hollow this particular offseason. There are a multitude of solid options available for varying amounts and it’s imperative that the White Sox explore the possibilities
Once again, Joc Pederson made some sense in theory due to his prowess against right handed pitching but he will return to the San Francisco Giants after being extended and accepting the qualifying offer. Ideally, the White Sox are able to add a left-handed hitting outfielder to play regularly in an outfield corner with Colás expected to man the other spot. Funds are tight and another starting pitcher is required as well but lineup balance should rule the day this off-season.
Nimmo would be a near perfect fit but just seems like a financial pipe dream. The Law Firm of Bellinger, Conforto and Gallo could provide some upside but the risk likely exceeds it. The White Sox won’t get into a bidding war for Bellinger and nobody should be confident that the organization could fix his swing any way. Conforto would be a great fit despite missing the 2022 season with a shoulder injury. The 29-year-old former first rounder has smacked 132 big league homers while posting a 136 wRC+ vs righties in his career. Gallo is a great defender who walks and possesses huge raw power but the strikeouts are a red flag.
Benintendi was coveted by the White Sox during the 2015 draft and he’s posted a 116 career wRC+ versus right handed pitching. Now 28, he’s a solid defender who hit .304/.373/.399 with a 122 wRC+ last season. Benintendi only hit five homers but he has some familiarity with new manager Pedro Grifol from his Kansas City days and this could be the best of the realistic options for the club.
Peralta is 35-years-old and posted league average offensive production in 2022. He has posted a 121 wRC+ vs righties in his career. 33-year-old switch hitter Robbie Grossman was really bad for two teams last year and Kole Calhoun just suffered through his worst season as a professional as well. Kiermaier is a great defender who was a positive contributor for the Rays in 63 games in 2022 but the White Sox are likely looking for more offensive output.
Michael Brantley could be an option to finally play home games on the South Side as well. The 35-year-old posted a 127 wRC+ in 64 games last season but playing the outfield regularly could be a struggle. One potential outside the box idea could be exploring the price tag for Padres’ swiss army knife Jurickson Profar. He hit 15 homers and posted a 110 wRC+ while playing some left field and second base.
The 2023 White Sox will have a new coaching staff in tow with the goal of winning the American League Central. It’s essential that the team adds some firepower in the outfield and the addition of at least two solid options will be optimal. Oscar Colás is coming and he’s exciting. Having more bats than spots is an excellent organizational approach to solving offensive woes but the franchise has some work to do for that top become a reality.
Obviously I’m bracing myself for the usual cheapskate additions and terrible trades, and I personally would just hand RF to Colas and tell him that it’s his to lose.
But it is definitely really interesting to think about how much better this team might be next year with even average offensive outfielders who can actually play the outfield. We’ve seen too many players out there that have glaring offensive or defensive deficiencies, sometimes both. That really needs to end.
If Colas is Plan A, then I’m considering the 2023 season wasted from the get-go. Not that I don’t believe in the kid, but I shouldn’t have to, and they have functionally nothing behind him as Plan B.
I’d rather have Colas as plan A than have them trot out some FA dumpster dive. I don’t want Peralta, Myers, Gallo, etc. Colas had some success at AAA and they’re not likely to compete in 2023 anyway. I don’t think him being the starter is that much of a reach – or that they have better options. Colas is 24 and will be 25 by season end, I think a good chance they are not rushing him.
Houston stuck Pena in at SS last year after only 30 games at AAA in 2021 and it worked pretty well for them. I don’t expect Colas to duplicate that success but if the alternative is to spend between 5-10 million on somebody with minimal upside, why bother? Colas is left handed and can play defense, both of which make him potentially an ideal fit for this team. I think he’ll be adequate at least, he will certainly improve the defense immediately.
Another thing to consider is that if Colas came up and was just terrible for months, I don’t actually think that’s bad for his development.
Oh he might struggle a bit, just like many other players that reach the MLB level for the first time. But if the alternative is the usual dumpster dive that will be bad anyway, let’s use the at bats on someone with a future here.
I just think a re-set is in order. The damage the Larussa hiring did to this organization is far reaching. Other than Colas, there are no credible outfield or pitching options in AAA.
With the “core” still relatively young, the Sox should make trades for blocked infield and outfield prospects in order to set up for a run in 2024.
The 2 or 3 minor FA signings that or trades that Hahn makes will not make this team a World Series contender.
The World Series should be the point of it all, correct?
It’s definitely unfortunate that they probably won’t “pick a lane” so to speak. During the rebuild they were supposed to be bad on purpose, and then we were supposed to come out of it kicking ass for a long time. Instead, we’re stuck in this weird state where the team has the same holes year after year but the team is too cheap or stupid to address them.
I agree. It is hard to to say what the strength of the organization is. It’s not necessarily scouting or development. They definitely won’t be the Yankees or Dodgers when it comes to spending in free agency.
Quite the quandary
“It’s hard to say what the strength of the organization is”.
Honestly, they don’t have any. There is nothing this team or organization does that well. Drafting, scouting, developement? Mediocre at best, that’s being kind. Baserunning? Poor. Defense? Pitiful. Hitting vs RHP? Totally inadequate. Ownership/spending? Beyond words. About the only thing this team does well that I can think of is hit left handed pitching pretty well. I will give them that. But there is nothing else, literally. Average/mediocre at best, at everything. The top 5 guys in the Astros lineup had a higher WAR than every position player on the Sox roster. And Sox fans are left to speculate on them getting outfielders that probably would not even make the Astros roster. I just pray that we don’t see Gallo, Peralta, Myers, etc. Why even bother, save the money for a year when they are set up to compete, adding good players who can actually help them do that.
I’d say that Katz is definitely a strength for the org. He’s done a pretty good job on converting talented but frustrating pitchers into actually good pitchers, between Giolito, Cease, Rodon, and arguably Lopez in his new relief role. You could toss Cueto in there too, probably. To me the clear way forward is to give Katz plenty of similarly talented-but-frustrating clay to shape. Syndergaard, Eflin, Manaea, Taillon, Clevinger approximately fit that bill in FA. Maybe Snell via trade with SDP, who’s been rumored to be shopping him.
You nailed it. They are much worse now than the promising team that flopped against an unspectacular A’s team two years ago, needing obvious improvements. They needed to get better and have done nothing since, apart from losing Rodon and now Abreu. Now they have no choice but to shoot for 2024/25, realistically. Nothing they could possibly gain from any of the outfielders mentioned is going to help enough when coupled with the loss of Abreu. I say let Colas and Sheets play the corner outfield spots, at least Colas will improve the OF defense. Punt the season, avoid wasting the 10+ million on dumpster dives like Eaton, Harrison, Velazquez, Kelly, etc, like they do every year, save the money instead, and f-ing spend it on real players for once prior to 2024.
Cheap and stupid, this organization embodies both of those qualities.
In no particular order, Benintendi, Brantley, Santander or Winker.
Then, try to pick up Alek Thomas on the cheap to replace Engel.
Entering season 7 of the rebuild and the team has: no right fielder, no left fielder, no second basemen, a starting catcher owed 18+ million coming off a -1.4 WAR season, and no 5th starter. And the GM has the nerve to inform the fan base he’s “gushing” and smiling more than usual these days because they’ve hired a new manager.
On a side note apart from outfielders, a Yankees beat writer proposed a Liam Hendriks for Gleyber Torres trade.
https://yanksgoyard.com/2022/11/25/yankees-beat-writer-proposes-trade-white-sox-help-bullpen/
Heck, for Torres they could take Graveman too. I fail to see how Liam would be enough, but the Yankees might consider if Graveman was included. The Sox need to shoot for 2024/25, realistically. And they need players like Torres with real upside, not mediocre players like most of the outfielders listed other than maybe Benintendi. What separates them from better teams is true high quality players much better than the ones available on cheap 1 year deals. Those guys are not going to cut it if this team actually wants to get appreciably better. But Torres would be much better than anything they could possibly get at 2b, from within or without. Two years of him would easily be worth Liam and whatever else was needed, if Torres is available. Cut payroll and plug a gaping hole with a good player seems like a good plan. 2023 is going to be a throw away season anyway with the loss of Abreu, so I could care less what their bullpen is like next season.
Let Colas play and give him RF for 2023, come what may. I’m fine with Sheets in left as long as Colas is in RF. Whatever bandaid they might pick up in left field would be immaterial and should only be a 1 year deal so that they might be able to do some intelligent things and get some real players for once prior to 2024. With Lynn, Grandal, Diekman, Kelly, Giolito coming off the books, at least there will be some possibilities there – hypothetically. Although perhaps with this ownership nothing is possible. I’m always cynical about Reinsdorf, but even I did not think they would do literally nothing in the FA market for two straight seasons during the peak opportunity of their rebuild. Unless that changes, nothing else they do is going to matter much at all.
A lot of people seem really pessimistic about 2023, but if the Sox can plug holes in LF, 2B, and SP, there’s every reason to think that they’ll be much, much better than last year–to the point where they could well be competitive for a WS. Don’t believe me? If you look at the player pages on Fangraphs and compare the fWAR Sox players had at each field position in 2022 vs. the fWAR the models project for those players/positions in 2023 (with the additions of Benintendi, Gleyber Torres, and Colas), you get this:
C—Grandal: +2.9
1B—Abreu/Vaughn: -1.6
2B—Leury Garcia/Gleyber Torres: +4.5
SS—TA: +1.0
3B—Moncada: +1.7
RF—Sheets/Colas: +1.6
LF—Pollock/Benintendi: +1.8
CF—Robert: +1.9
DH—Eloy: +1.8 ____________________
Total: +14.6
The above doesn’t completely account for some changes in position (like the fact that Fangraphs projections for Eloy in 2023 assume he plays mostly LF, while I assume he plays mostly DH), but it should give a pretty good idea of how much better the Sox might well be next year if they plug holes and just get bounce-back production from a lot of players that had terrible years in 2022. Instead of a .500 team, you’re looking at a team set for 95-96 wins. That’s how badly many players underperformed in 2022, and how helpful it would be to fill the LF and 2B holes.
They still need a SP, but if they can roughly replace Cueto’s production, the staff overall is projected to produce about the same fWAR as last year. Trading Hendriks weakens the bullpen, but Crochet is coming back, Bummer should be healthier than last year, and overall the bullpen might well be around the same as last year.
Anyway, if the Sox are not willing to do what it takes to plug these 3 holes and try to win in 2023, I have no idea why people would think they’d do it in 2024.
Anybody who thinks this team is going to compete for a WS in 2023 (or 95 wins) probably has the munchies!
The reason people think they might be more inclined to plug holes with better players after 2023 is because Grandal, Lynn, Giolito, Kelly, and Diekman all come off the payroll. It still might be wishful thinking that they will do much even then, they could have added good players either of the prior 2 winters and did nothing instead.
Anyway let me know when they get Torres for Liam. I’ll believe that when I see it. As it stands, their opening day 2b stands to be an unproven minor league player, or Leury, not someone with a WAR of 4. And on 95 wins/World Series aspirations for 2023, you should be a comedian.
I wish the Liam for Torres trade idea was an actual rumor, not something originating from a beat writer. I agree seems very unlikely. Torres was a damn good player for the Yankees, it doesn’t make sense that they would look to trade him.
And the models Fangraphs uses to project WAR are wrong because?
Have you watched this team play .500 ball for the past season and a half even though they had the weakest strength of schedule in MLB during that time, with awful defense, no ability to hit right handed pitching, and no major league right fielder on the roster? I could give a you know what about what your projections say, does not correspond to reality. Even if a couple guys rebound to 2021 levels, they flopped badly against the Astros in the playoffs, predictably, because they weren’t that good in the first place and can’t hit righties. The majority of pitchers they would face in the playoffs are right handed, and they’ve sucked vs RHP for 3 years and done nothing to address. Period. They were only a couple games ahead of the wild card teams in 2021, and arguably would not have even made the playoffs that year if they were in a different division without benefit of having the weakest strength of schedule in MLB. Their weakest strength of schedule inflates all their statistics too, by the way.
Reinsdorf runs this team in the exact opposite way that any rational fan would want, in a way that gives them virtually no chance to win and with results that keep showing that, and people want to still believe in this team and that they can win without spending to improve, and without a single good left handed hitter on the roster. They’re worse now than 2 years ago, losing their MVP from 2020.
Yeah, I know, team pessimism. Listen, if they’re really that bad, what the Sox should do is blow it up. Trade Cease this winter for prospects, he’ll get a good return. A lot of the other players I expect you’d be trading low on (injuries, down years), so I’d give Eloy, Robert, TA, and Vaughn a chance to put up big numbers this year (or the first half of this year), and trade them for prospects when you think they’re at about peak value.
Yes, I watched the team. I watched a team so hobbled by consistent injuries (major and minor) that it was hard to keep most of their best players on the team for any extended period of time — and even when they were on the field, many of them looked like shadows of themselves from a year or so before. I watched La Russa and Hahn mismanage the team so badly that Leury was playing as if he were a starter at every position. I watched Vaughn look like the worst defender that’s ever been put in the outfield, and then heard complaints that it wore his legs out and effected his hitting. I watched Robert look every bit the superstar CF in the making in 2021, producing 3.3 WAR in under 70 games (that would be 7.3 WAR in 150 games). Then he was merely a “good” player in 2022 (2.1 WAR in 98 games), who regressed defensively and ended the year 1 for 28 due to, you guessed it, an injury. I watched Grandal go from a guy who for a good chunk of the season looked locked in, healthy, and powerful–he was mashing HRs to RF that would be HRs no matter how dead the ball is now (even after a slow start, he hit 23 HRs in 93 games). Then, in 2022, I swear it looked like he could barely hit the ball hard enough to get it to the outfielders. I also watched how towards the end of 2022, when Eloy finally had a stretch of healthy games, with more time at DH, he was mashing the hell out of the ball. The second half he hit 14 HRs in 65 games, with a .558 SLG% and an OPS+ of 167.
Can Vaughn produce better now that he’s at first? Can Eloy continue to hit like the 2nd half of last year if he stays at DH? Can Robert start looking like the superstar he looked ready to become in 2021? Can Grandal heal and strengthen in the offseason, and get managed in a way, that lets him stay healthy and look anything like that power hitter in 2021? I don’t know. What I do know, is that if the answer to all of those questions is “no,” then they really should just blow it up. Reinsdorf is not going to spend the huge amounts of money that would be needed to make a team like that suddenly able to compete. Not this year, not in 2024, not in 2025.
If they blow it up and start over with some decent prospects, with any luck, Reinsdorf will be gone by the time they might again be ready to actually compete.
This is the team Hahn created trading arguably the most valuable contract for a pitcher in the league and two other pretty good ones. Now imagine letting him reset the team again with an even worse starting point.
Lol you’re out of your mind if you think this team is at a worse starting point than 2016. Cease, Robert, Eloy, TA, Vaughn, and Hendriks would all bring back considerable prospect packages. There’s a reason this core has been in the playoffs twice and that one never got above 78 wins.
I don’t think the Sox should rebuild. But I don’t think they should for this very reason.
Cease and Robert would bring a good return, but combined they’d maybe net a similar return to what they got for Sale. Eloy, Robert, and Vaughn are damaged, unreliable commodities who have never performed across a full season. Hendriks is making a lot of money, pitches in a third of the games if you’re lucky, and is in his mid-30s. People very much overvalue what most of these guys could bring back in trade, I think.
Yeah you’re just mostly wrong here. You’re certainly wrong about Cease/Robert combining for the Sale return. Robert was 8th in FG trade value series (in the ballpark with Jose Ramirez and Vlad Jr) and Cease was 39th (in the ballpark of Jazz and Sean Murphy). Both of those guys would bring back massive prospect hauls. I agree they are each below where Sale was, but only just barely.
You know who else values guys pitching in a third of games? MLB front offices. Closers are making huge amounts of money and Hendriks is the top of his game making relatively little.
I’m not saying—for guys like Vaughn or Eloy or Hendriks—they’d bring back 3 top 100 guys or something. But they’d—to quote my original comment—return considerable prospect packages. Vaughn and Eloy would return a headliner plus a throw in (or thereabouts). For Hendriks, you probably get one solid, borderline top 100 guy (maybe the equivalent of Bryan Ramos?).
Anyway, in 2016 they really had very little outside of the top guys. Vaughn, Eloy, and Hendriks would all bring back prospects better than the second tier of 2016. Hell, Giolito probably would, too.
There’s just no way they were better positioned for a rebuild in 2016 than today. That’s craziness.
If they wanna rebuild again they can feel free to prove me wrong. Robert was ranked 8th in trade value in July, before more injuries and poor performance. He’s worth a ton, but he’s not Chris Sale in terms of value, because he’s never established any sort of performance floor anywhere near that stratosphere. Cease is close to that based on the last two seasons, but he’s also only under control for three more seasons at increasing (and uncertain) costs. Eloy and Vaughn? Sure, I could see GMs being interested, but they’d value them as damaged assets, not sure things.
Hardly matters, they ain’t gonna tear it down to that level, and if they’re so bad midseason that they actually decide to go that route, it probably means a lot of these guys tanked in value.
As I said before, I agree they aren’t going to rebuild—but that proves my point! There’s much more reason to think they can win than in 2016–because there’s more talent.
Robert also has 5 years of control and a higher ceiling than Sale. The FG trade values write up on Cease underscores how the volatility of pitchers hurts their value—and Sale was perceived as an injury risk then. Robert is a tick below Sale, I agree. But only a tick.
And while Robert’s value might have taken a bit after that write up, surely Cease’s has improved. It’s probably a wash.
You can call Vaughn and Eloy “damaged assets” all you want. We both agree they aren’t in the same tier as Robert and Cease. That doesn’t mean they wouldn’t command some serious prospects in return.
ESPN has the Sox ranked 17th in power rankings after 16th last year. They are losing their highest WAR position player, and 2nd highest pitcher. Calling for 95 wins and being competitive for a WS in 2023 is in the category of utter nonsense.
Abreu was their highest position WAR player in 2022. Just one year earlier, in 2021, there were four other Sox players better than him: TA, Moncada, Grandal, and Robert–even though Abreu played more games than all of them (Robert played less than half the games Abreu did, but still finished with a higher fWAR). All four of them had down years in 2022, most of them missed lots of games or complained all year about injuries. Predicting 2023 by looking ONLY at 2022, which you seem intent to do, makes no sense.
That’s also why ESPN rankings after last year don’t matter too much. Right now, the betting markets have the Sox 11th in WS odds. And that’s with rumors the Sox won’t do anything significant to fill their holes at LF, 2B, and SP. If they truly spend almost no more money and bring in only marginal junk players, then that seems about right. If they fill the three holes with average or better MLB players, they’ve got a decent shot.
Hoping this team wins a championship is like a fat chick hoping to become Miss America. Not going to happen unless a lot of changes to this ugly roster are made.
Check Rick Hahn’s history on plugging holes in RF/LF, SP, and 2B, and you’ll understand the general pessimism. Sure, it’s POSSIBLE for them to be competitive in 2023, but there’s a lot of wishing on players to be healthier and effective as well as Hahn actually making sensible acquisitions.
Yeah, it’s terrible. I’d probably attribute it as much to Reinsdorf as to Hahn, though. The Kimbrel trade was terrible, but once they did that all of the attempts to plug holes at 2B have been bargain basement pickups. Pollock in the OF was also bargain basement (just switching a bad contract for Kimbrel to an arguably less bad contract in Pollock). And then they had Vaughn stuck embarrassing and injuring himself in the OF when Reinsdorf apparently demanded that they not let Abreu go. Maybe they should have traded low on Vaughn then and just gotten a tolerable outfielder, but it’s not like Hahn has had a free hand from a normal owner.
I also understand being pessimistic about the team, and I’m unfortunately pessimistic that Reinsdorf/Hahn will spend the money and make the choices needed to plug holes with real players. But I don’t want to let them off the hook for it. If Reinsdorf matched last year’s payroll–just matched the fricking thing–and Hahn made some half-decent choices that have been floated dozens of times by a lot of people on this site alone, the Sox would right now be a team that should realistically win 95+ games, and be at least a dark horse candidate for a WS.
Liam for Torres seems about fair. Closers are valued beyond their raw WAR, esp the established elite ones like Hendriks, and Torres is now established as a good-not-great player with two not super cheap arb years (arb-3 and arb-4) remaining, due to him qualifying as a Super-Two guy.
The Yanks beat writer also suggests shipping us Clarke Schmidt. With him and Davis Martin in hand, I’d feel okay with a plan of them and a couple ST invites competing for the 5th rotation spot.
I don’t want to rush Colas. Let him develop in AAA. Sox need to sign or trade for a 2 to 3 WAR LH RF. The high WAR mitigates Grandal and Moncada, and has to be a + defender. If a FA, a one or two year contract as a placeholder for Colas. Brantley, perhaps. If trade for a Varsho, for example, Sheets plays LF while Colas develops and the outfield is Varsho, Robert, Sheets with Garcia as the 4th. Colas comes up and then it is Varsho, Robert and Colas, with Garcia as the 4th (only because of that dumb contract).
Sign Segura for 2B.
I think people have far too much concern about babying athletes. I have no fear of rushing Colas. If he struggles, so be it, it might be good for him in the long run. Justin Fields was not very good last year at all, but they let him play and now he’s come into his own. So what if Colas isn’t great in 2023 (and he might be ok, at least he can field), let him play and he might be quite good in 2024 when they hopefully have a much improved roster over this current mess of a team.
It’s not about babying Colas, it’s about the very vast gulf between him and the next option. He should be depth, not the solution, and giving him time to become a more finished product wouldn’t be a bad thing.
Let Colas be your everyday RF let one of Sosa, Romy or Jose compete for 2B the rest on the bench get Benintendi to play LF trade Hendriks and sweeten the deal with Garcia for Torres or just DFA release Garcia. Resign Cueto get Syndergaard, resign Velasquez, Engel and Mendick for depth.
Colas should certainly be given a good shot at the starting RF hole. Steamer’s projecting him for a 112 wRC+ and negative defensive value en route to an approximately average (2-WAR) season if given full time play. If he meets the offensive projection and his defense is what reports say– averageish in center, above-avg in a corner– that’s a pretty decent combo of floor and ceiling. He’ll get a serious shot.
Profar’s profile is pretty out of date: he’s a free agent now after declining an $8.3M option, and he’s not played much 2B since 2019, with not a single inning in 2022, and his work there defensively 2019-21 was pretty bad. SDP has used him almost entirely as a LF, and he’s a negative on defense there, albeit not Sheets bad. He’s not really a swiss army knife any more.
I don’t really like Benintendi that much either. He doesn’t hit the ball hard, so the dead ball really destroyed his HR pop, which is ofc what plays best in the Rate by park factor. Plate discipline and above-average defense is good and all, but they need to acquire a guy who can actually start in either corner: between the strong potentials of Colas struggling badly, or of Robert getting hurt -> Colas shifting to CF, the opening day LF will almost certainly need to spend a lot of time playing RF. Benintendi’s never played an inning of RF in the bigs. Also, Benintendi being 28 and coming off a good year will get him a multi-year contract that I simply don’t want around given the limited ceiling.
Gallo and Conforto are obviously risky, but they both have sizable experience defending (average to plus) in both corners and serious pop at the plate. As such I think they both fit the lineup’s needs a lot better. It’s arguable that a 105-110 wRC+ year from one of that duo could be more useful to the 2023 White Sox than a 115-120 wRC+ year from Benintendi. You can cover a chunk of LF with Eloy and the Butcher Bros. Covering a chunk of RF that way is worse.
I agree with your take on Benintendi. He doesn’t have the kind of upside/power to justify a multi year deal. They need a star quality player or two at some point. He is however way better than Gallo. I’ve talked to Yankee fans who lament that they ever got him, he is absolutely terrible and a K machine. He hit like .160 the last year and a half. I mean he’s like a good fielding Adam Dunn, simply awful for this team. WAR barely above zero in 2022 in two lineups with great hitters around him. God no.
Colas should be in RF no matter what he does, absolutely. Conforto would be fine as LF/RF addition, enormously higher upside as a hitter than Gallo. He’s really the only outfielder mentioned that I would have any interest in seeing them get. I’m of the shoot for 2024 crowd, with hopefully way better additions available and possible after this season. The only way to actually sign a good free agent is by giving a multi year deal, after all.
If this team was truly serious about winning, they might consider signing one of the brilliant SS’s this winter and move TA to left. That would solve multiple issues and put them back on the map at least. With TA at SS it will always be difficult for this team to be above average defensively. Moving him to left and installing a great SS would completely change the structure of this team. Not incredibly likely but neither is anything that would make this team a lot better.
1) What you’re saying about Gallo is not untrue, he’s very much a feast or famine hitter. But I think you’re really underestimating the risk that Conforto’s shoulder injury is serious enough that he is just not the same guy any more and never will be. Bellinger and Bryant both dropped from MVPs to considerably less after throwing-shoulder injuries like Conforto’s, which scares the bejesus outta me re: signing him. They’re both pretty risky bets, just in different ways.
2) Why move TA to LF instead of 2B? 2B is a much more valuable defensive position, is also a major hole on the roster, and is ofc much closer in skillset to SS than LF is.
3) The notion of TA being a dreadful defender at SS depends greatly on trusting UZR, which, well… I simply don’t at all. Let’s compare him to those four free agent star SS defensively with a few different advanced fielding metrics in the past 5 seasons (2018-22):
Innings UZR UZR/150 DRS OAA RAA
DRS and OAA/RAA are in agreement on who they think is great (Swanson, Correa), who they think is a little better than average (TA, Turner), and who they think is absolutely miscast as a shortstop (Bogaerts). UZR is not in agreement with ANY of those assessments! I especially really don’t like that it thinks Bogaerts is the best defender of this group when DRS/OAA/RAA (and, though it’s always biased, the reputation + eye test) say he’s the worst. I personally much prefer OAA/RAA. Why? Here’s an excerpt from the FanGraphs UZR Primer piece on issues with the metric:
Statcast does know all these things, precisely! In particular, defensive positioning is known to give UZR fits, which has become increasingly common in this day and age.
TL;DR: The narrative that Tim Anderson is a terrible defensive shortstop is due to a badly outdated defensive metric.
Agree about TA’s defense. It’s about average for a SS, and overall he’s a very good MLB SS. I don’t know why people seem to think he’s a problem for the Sox.
Disagree about Gallo/Benintendi. Realistically, if the Sox are going to compete, their players have to have the kind of bounce-back years projected by the Fangraphs models. Steamer projects the Sox for 217 HRs. By comparison, it projects Toronto for 221 and Texas for 211. That would put the Sox around 8th in MLB in HRs (based on the HR leaderboard in 2022, when Toronto was 7th and Texas 8th). Also, Gallo is only projected for 7 more HRs next year than Benintendi, but he’s projected for a full 1.2 fWAR less in overall value. It’s true that the dead ball might mitigate this some, but I don’t think it would be nearly as much as a full 1 WAR in difference. As for multi-year contracts, Benintendi should be fine for the next 2 years at least. If he’s bad in years 3+4, I don’t think it will matter much b/c I don’t really see the Sox being ready to compete in those years anyway (based on the overall state of their minor leagues).
If Sox players under-perform projections by anything like the amount they did in 2022, they’re doomed no matter who they sign for LF, so I’m not sure why they’d want to make plans assuming all those under-performing players will be terrible again.
217 HRs? That’s a bullshit number. We hit 149 last year and have lost our best HR hitter and 58 of those HRs overall. Right now we would be lucky to get half those back by improvements from existing players. And you can’t project what isn’t there. Right now we are much closer to 117 HR than 217.
You all can continue to argue over defense, and yes its annoying to me too, but if we only add a guy who hit 5 HRs last year and rookie ??? we are only going to be contending with KC for last place no matter how good our D is.
It depends on your assumptions. If you assume something like: “Eloy, Robert, Moncada, and Grandal are going to produce at roughly the same level as last year,” then, sure, there’s little hope for 217. But if you don’t assume that, it’s easier to see.
149 – 58 is 91 HR, that’s our base right now. Be rose F’n optimistic and double those four’s numbers and you get an additional 45 HR that’s 136 rose F’n optimistic HR’s or a far far ways away from 217 and put us at or near the bottom in MLB. You can’t project what is not there, that would just be making shit up.
Look, the models are based on production for the last 3 years or so, and they work the same way for every player on every team. Does the dead ball mean we should expect teams to hit fewer HR’s because the model incorporates data from live ball years? Maybe, but that effect should be about the same for every team. That’s why I used next year’s projections for those teams. So if every team hits fewer HR’s, the Sox would still be expected to be around 8th best, at whatever number it ends up being.
Is it possible that the Sox are somehow in unique decline? Sure. Maybe Grandal is just totally done (although the models do reduce numbers for average aging effects). Maybe lots of things unique to the White Sox. But there’s every reason to think the models are a good starting point for what we should expect Sox players to do next year, relative to other teams. I get that you’re pessimistic, but you can also be so pessimistic that you end up “making up shit” about how badly the Sox should be expected to do.
The math doesn’t work like that.
Doubling Grandal’s HR total from ‘22 (5) would put him at 10–that’s less than half the amount of HR he’s hit in any season since 2015.
On the view that the Sox get to 217+, I think you’d expect about 90-100 home runs from these 4 alone. That’s, say, 60 from Eloy + Robert, then 30-40 from Grandal and Moncada.
You may think that won’t happen. But it’s not unreasonable nor is it “making shit up.” It’s based in all 4 of those players’ prior performances.
The math doesn’t work for you because you didn’t do it. Doubling up those 4 is 90 HRs and that’s still wildly optimistic. From 2021 to 2022 those 4 went from 60 HR to 45 not 60 to 120. So yeah expecting it to double from yr to yr doesn’t always work and in fact can go the opposite way. And again, doubling that still only gets us to 136 HR not 217.
But fine, you want to think that Yaz will match his career high and hit 28, and Yoan will match his career high and hit 25, and Eloy will set a new career high doubling last yr with 32 and Robert doubling his career high with 26 but that still only gets you to 157 HR.
The making shit up is how you get from 157 to 217 because you don’t have it with the rest of the roster and you can’t project what isn’t there.
“doubling” from last year is not how this works at all! Eloy averages 0.055 HR/PA for his career: as a full-time DH who thus stays mostly healthy with about 600 PA, that comes to 33 HR, which is what the FG projections predict. Moncada’s rate is 0.03 HR/PA: in, again, 600 PA, that comes to 18 HR, also what the FG projections predict. Robert’s rate is 0.039; a 600-PA season from him would net him 24 HR, tho we know he’s got the strength to hit considerably more. Let’s say 450 PA for him given injury risk, which estimates 18 HR. Grandal’s career rate is 0.042. Let’s take 25% off that for aging, and estimate 350 PA: 11 HR. That gets us to a nice round total of 80 HR from these four.
I don’t think these are unreasonable. Robert and Grandal’s HR projections via FG are 7 and 2 HR greater. So in sum: the projections think reasonably healthy years from these dudes, accounting for Grandal’s age & position, comes to 89 HR. They could definitely underperform that— Moncada’s swing could be broken, Robert and Eloy could be hurt constantly again, Grandal could be toast, and they get a result like this past year. And they could also definitely outperform: Eloy’s got the pop for a 50-HR season, Robert’s got the pop for 40, Grandal could hit 20-25 again like he has for nearly his whole career, Moncada’s got the raw pop for 25+ if he ever finds that 2019 form again. If we’re being optimistic, it’s plausible to go with: Eloy 45, Robert 35, Moncada 23, Grandal 24, which sums to 127 HR. A 90-HR projection is the middle ground. I really don’t see what’s unreasonable about it.
No, the math doesn’t work like that because the math doesn’t work like that. That’s simply not how projection models work.
You say I “want to think” all that, but that’s clearly false. Re-read my post. I said projecting those 4 for around 90-100 is reasonable (that’d be, for what it’s worth, well under those numbers for Yoan and Grandal).
Are you saying if those 4 hit 157 home runs, you don’t think Vaughn, Anderson, a DH, LF, RF, and 2B couldn’t hit 60 home runs (217-157) combined? Or ~10 home runs per person?
Projections are also based on talent. You may think it’s entirely unreasonable to think Robert could hit 35 or Vaughn could hit 30 or Eloy could hit 40, but projections bake these sorts of possibilities in.
In my OPP I went the trade route to fill the 5th starter spot but had I gone for a FA Clevinger would have been the front runner.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/white-sox-showing-strong-interest-in-mike-clevinger.html
Seeing if last season was a matter of Clevinger’s body recovering after Tommy John surgery wouldn’t be the worst gamble Rick Hahn’s made.
He’s certainly not someone I’d give a long term deal to but a one yr or 1+ opt and hope he gets close to his 2017-20 numbers for a year and yeah that’s not a bad 5th starter.
His home/away splits make me very apprehensive. Even if it’s not too cosly and just to fill the #5 spot.
home/away splits (esp for one year) don’t usually mean much at all, unless a guy plays for Colorado or there’s something unique going on like Willy Adames not being able to see the ball in Tampa. sample sizes are pretty tiny, it’s likely noise
Even in a world where the (projectied) $10mil wasn’t Hahn’s big offseason spend, I don’t like it.
In this world, where $10mil is spent on an iffy #5 starter and Hahn doesn’t have enough to fix 2B and the Outfield, I hate it.
Find one or more options for unde $5mil and get some offense.
I think iffy #5 starter is a little harsh on Clevinger. He was an excellent starter before TJS and was in good form before wearing down.
There was mention of the Sox apparently targeting a lefty bat at 2B, which to me means Kolten Wong, who has 1 year/$10M left on his contract. Him and Sosa would be a solid plan at 2nd. Wouldn’t cost that much in trade as such.
katz’ll fix ‘em
I considered him the best of the stopgap options, but I don’t know how much his baggage will be a problem.
Yeah I’m apprehensive about that too, hopefully he’s grown up some with the struggles. On the one hand I like that they’ve got this deal done quick so they can move on to their other problems. On the other I share your dread that Hahn will just sit on his hands the rest of the off season. On the bright side, the owners meetings start in a week and Hahn always likes to act like the big shot he isn’t so we should either get movement or confirmation of no movement soon.
Formulating a very brief offseason plan based of current rumors:
Sign Clevinger for 1y/$10M + option
Sign Brantley 1y/$10M
3way trade w MIL and LAD (or whoever): Hendriks to LAD, Wong + Dodgers prospect(s) to CHW, Sheets + Dodgers prospect(s) to MIL.
Adds a net of $26M, payroll of $198M. Brantley’s got huge platoon splits in recent years: since 2019, 147 wRC+ vs RHP, 86 vs LHP. LF/DH is mostly split between Brantley and Eloy. Theoretically works, if those two stay healthy, which they probably won’t.
Based on the latest rumors of the Sox being interested in Wong and Clevinger, if they got them, that would be 2 upgrades. The biggest thing that must happen is their top 5- Timmy, Yoan, Robert, Eloy and Vaughn MUST stay healthy and produce. In 2022, the Astros top 5 offensive players combined for 26 WAR. The Sox would need 18-20 from their 5. Obviously that’s astronomically higher than last year, but it’s what they are going to need to compete for the division. A healthy Robert can produce 6. Then the other 4 need to average 3-3.5 each. Grandal needs to be healthy enough to catch 80-90 games, Colas needs to provide decent pop. Left field needs to be filled with a left-handed bat. 5 possible options in the Sox price range are Brantley, Bellinger, Benintendi, Gallo and Conforto. There are a ton of ifs in there, but that’s the reality of the Sox situation. I could see a lineup against righties of:
Timmy, ss
Yoan, 3b
Robert, cf
Eloy, DH
Lefty from above 5, lf
Vaughn, 1b
Colas, rf
Grandal, c
Wong, 2b
That lineup at least offers some hope, but they need good health and bounce-back years from several guys.
The rotation would be:
Cease
Giolito
Lynn
Clevinger
Kopech
That rotation has a potential to be good.
The bullpen as it stands should be pretty solid. A bench of Sosa, Seby, Sheets, a 4th OF (Tommy Pham?), and a utility IF (hopefully not Leury) would round out the team. Is that team good enough to win the Central?
yeah that’s plenty to win the central. cleveland isn’t going to be a juggernaut, and i doubt anyone else will be anything more than pesky. the core mostly returning to form, vastly less Sheets/Burger/Eloy in the outfield, and added anti-RHP capability in LHH LF, Wong, and Colas should be enough for like 95 wins. that’s basically the 93-win 2021 squad, swapping rodon/abreu/cesar/OF jumble for clev/brantley/wong/colas.
i think we’re probably stuck with leury given the contract.
Unless I’m doing my math wrong, the net salary add should be closer to $17m ($30m minus Hendriks), bringing the payroll to sub-$190m—thus making it all the more plausible. 1 year, $10m feels a little light for Brantley, though.
I’d be okay with this, depending on the prospects in the Hendriks deal. Hendriks for Wong is a bad swap for the Sox on its own. I saw the Hendriks for Gleyber trade floated. That’s preferable (though the Yanks might still send a prospect back for that, too).
yeah, i did the math wrong lol. 1/10 is what brantley’s projected for on FG, which is usually reliable. wong for hendriks isn’t good straight up ofc, so there would be some notable but not incredible prospects moving, and it doesn’t really *have* to be a three-way trade. more of a bring wong in, ship hendriks out w/out taking on more salary than wong effect.
Fair enough, on Brantley. MLBTR has 1/15. He should be affordable, either way. That’d be a solid offseason, given the payroll constraints—especially if they can make some other minor adjustments.
I like the general idea, but I’d prefer to not bother getting back prospects at all and to keep Sheets. He’d be a good backup at 1B/DH, and provide some lineup flexibility against RHP.
I’m also still unclear on exactly how much the Sox should expect back for Hendriks. Gleyber Torres and Clarke Schmidt sounds like pretty good value, but I’m still thinking of the baseline for Hendriks in purely cash terms: some other team gives the Sox $11 million in cash, plus takes on Hendriks’ $29 million over 2 years. The other team ends up paying $40 million over 2 years, which seems close to his market value now, and the Sox essentially get $25 million extra to spend on free agents this year (I think it’s reasonable to allocate all $11 million of cash back to this year’s payroll since the Sox can decline a bunch of options next year to reduce payroll–this year is the big crunch).
If the Sox match last year’s $193 million payroll, and have an extra $25 million from the Hendriks trade, they should have around $45 million to spend on free agents this year, correct? Even if the $11 million were split across this year and next, that would still be around $40 million just for this year.
At that price point, I’d hope they could get Wong for his $10 million contract plus a mid-level minor league prospect or two. And with $30-$35 million left over, they should be able to do better than Clevinger and Brantley — whether in the form of 2 better players (I’d suggest something like Benintendi and Taillon) or I guess they could get Clevinger, Brantley and a pretty high-class 4th OF, right-handed, for platoon options. I’d opt for the 2 better players, but that’s just me.
Or maybe they can actually get Cavan Biggio for mid-level prospects and his $4 million salary. I’d also be happy with that–they’d have another $6 million to spread around other spots.
Of course, if they work out a trade for Hendriks that is worth more than that, I’m all for it.
Apologies for the spam, but now that I look at it again. Managing to get Biggio for prospects would actually put them in the market for something like: Benintendi (LF–approx. $14 million in 2023), Bassitt (SP–approx. $17 million in 2023), and Biggio/Sosa (2B–approx. $4 million in 2023). That’s still only about $35 million out of the estimated $40-45 million available after the Hendriks’ salary dump/cash trade — still decent money for a 4th OF and maybe another bullpen arm. That would actually get me pretty pumped about the 2023 roster.
I don’t see the SOX signing any of the above veteran free agent OFs, although they will probably bring in a relatively cheap veteran as a 4th OF (perhaps a trade for KC’s Michael Taylor?). I think, and am hoping, they’ll go young in the OF.
I’m guessing the SOX will surprise most everyone and stand pat, keeping Eloy in LF another year and bringing back Abreu, although letting Vaughn take over at 1B while Abreu assumes the permanent DH spot. This allows them to keep their most consistent offensive asset without losing Abreu for nothing. I don’t see a scenario where the SOX let Abreu walk, especially not to SD or the Cubs!
Colas seems penciled in for RF, but he may not be ready early and need additional work in the minors, so I see Hahn going cheap and acquiring someone near ready from another organization to fill that hole. I prefer a trade with STL to acquire Moises Gómez, sending back a Kelly or Graveman, plus another young arm from the lower minors. TEX, ANA, MIA and SEA also have young OFs blocked and a need for veteran relief help.
Similarly, I think we can rule out any deal trading away Liam Hendriks given Hahn’s obsessive focus on a strong backend of the bullpen and belief in himself as roster builder. Perhaps they will move a veteran reliever plus a young arm or MI to fill an immediate need, like at 2B in Kolten Wong; but dealing Hendricks to LAD or NYY for a Lux or Torres to solve a position at which they have several young, affordable candidates is a pipe-dream.
Basically, the team from last year will be this year’s team, minus a few vets and TLR. Why? Because the front office believed in their plan, which was derailed for two years.